Although long term momentum is going upwards as seen on the , and FI troughs are getting smaller, the real tell is the . Why is that so high when Russia is and ready for further losses?? Because smart money is buying, that's why. I've never seen a Russian chart here on TV, but I'm sure that in March, most of the traders in Russia where (I've called a long on copper right at that time, copper and Russia are highly correlated, linked chart below description). That right there was a false breakdown, false breakout, spring, shakeout, whatever you want to call it, it's extremely , considering how important the 23$ level is.
I've labeled some corrections a while back. Look at the then, and look at the last month. Except that red candle, we have 3 consecutive indecision candles with huge . That means buying and more buying took place.
Look at my secret weapon, the Weis Wave. We had a "bullish change in behavior", as its creator David Weis likes to say.
After a change in behavior, there are two possible confirmations. Either a low correction, or a very high correction with little reward. Well, there it is! Where did the correction halt? Right at the magic 23$ level, where all the high action took place.
Now, there are two possible scenarios for this rally, and I'm as sure as you can be in this business that there is going to be a rally. We come back to see 21$ tested and recoil from their, and that would happen only if geopolitical tension will rise dramatically, insurgents killing soldiers or vice versa won't be enough. The second possibility, and this is what I believe is going to happen, is that the Russian stock market will rally directly from here.
I believe that the Russian market is at a very interesting point right now, and so is copper which is highly correlated. My buy order is very close to be triggered. If I get stopped out, I think that there is going to be a lot of selling because the level where we stand has been holding the market for ages, and once it gets broken...