The Russian stock market suffered a lot during these past months, due to geopolitical issues. News are pretty bearish for Russia at the moment, everybody is scared. I believe that huge amounts of Russian stock have been bought, probably because some smart people considered it's a bargain.
Although long term momentum is going upwards as seen on the MACD, and FI troughs are getting smaller, the real tell is the volume. Why is that volume so high when Russia is bearish and ready for further losses?? Because smart money is buying, that's why. I've never seen a Russian chart here on TV, but I'm sure that in March, most of the traders in Russia where bearish (I've called a long on copper right at that time, copper and Russia are highly correlated, linked chart below description). That right there was a false breakdown, false breakout, spring, shakeout, whatever you want to call it, it's extremely bullish, considering how important the 23$ level is.
I've labeled some corrections a while back. Look at the volume then, and look at the volume last month. Except that red candle, we have 3 consecutive indecision candles with huge volume. That means buying and more buying took place.
Look at my secret weapon, the Weis Wave. We had a "bullish change in behavior", as its creator David Weis likes to say.
After a bullish change in behavior, there are two possible confirmations. Either a low volume correction, or a very high volume correction with little reward. Well, there it is! Where did the correction halt? Right at the magic 23$ level, where all the high volume action took place.
Now, there are two possible scenarios for this rally, and I'm as sure as you can be in this business that there is going to be a rally. We come back to see 21$ tested and recoil from their, and that would happen only if geopolitical tension will rise dramatically, insurgents killing soldiers or vice versa won't be enough. The second possibility, and this is what I believe is going to happen, is that the Russian stock market will rally directly from here.
Although long term momentum is going upwards as seen on the MACD, and FI troughs are getting smaller, the real tell is the volume. Why is that volume so high when Russia is bearish and ready for further losses?? Because smart money is buying, that's why. I've never seen a Russian chart here on TV, but I'm sure that in March, most of the traders in Russia where bearish (I've called a long on copper right at that time, copper and Russia are highly correlated, linked chart below description). That right there was a false breakdown, false breakout, spring, shakeout, whatever you want to call it, it's extremely bullish, considering how important the 23$ level is.
I've labeled some corrections a while back. Look at the volume then, and look at the volume last month. Except that red candle, we have 3 consecutive indecision candles with huge volume. That means buying and more buying took place.
Look at my secret weapon, the Weis Wave. We had a "bullish change in behavior", as its creator David Weis likes to say.
After a bullish change in behavior, there are two possible confirmations. Either a low volume correction, or a very high volume correction with little reward. Well, there it is! Where did the correction halt? Right at the magic 23$ level, where all the high volume action took place.
Now, there are two possible scenarios for this rally, and I'm as sure as you can be in this business that there is going to be a rally. We come back to see 21$ tested and recoil from their, and that would happen only if geopolitical tension will rise dramatically, insurgents killing soldiers or vice versa won't be enough. The second possibility, and this is what I believe is going to happen, is that the Russian stock market will rally directly from here.
