vlad.adrian
Long

Russia - A rocket ready for launch

AMEX:RSX   VANECK VECTORS RUSSIA ETF
316 9 3
The Russian stock market suffered a lot during these past months, due to geopolitical issues. News are pretty bearish for Russia at the moment, everybody is scared. I believe that huge amounts of Russian stock have been bought, probably because some smart people considered it's a bargain.

Although long term momentum is going upwards as seen on the MACD , and FI             troughs are getting smaller, the real tell is the volume . Why is that volume so high when Russia is bearish and ready for further losses?? Because smart money is buying, that's why. I've never seen a Russian chart here on TV, but I'm sure that in March, most of the traders in Russia where bearish (I've called a long on copper             right at that time, copper             and Russia are highly correlated, linked chart below description). That right there was a false breakdown, false breakout, spring, shakeout, whatever you want to call it, it's extremely bullish , considering how important the 23$ level is.

I've labeled some corrections a while back. Look at the volume then, and look at the volume last month. Except that red candle, we have 3 consecutive indecision candles with huge volume . That means buying and more buying took place.

Look at my secret weapon, the Weis Wave. We had a "bullish change in behavior", as its creator David Weis likes to say.
After a bullish change in behavior, there are two possible confirmations. Either a low volume correction, or a very high volume correction with little reward. Well, there it is! Where did the correction halt? Right at the magic 23$ level, where all the high volume action took place.

Now, there are two possible scenarios for this rally, and I'm as sure as you can be in this business that there is going to be a rally. We come back to see 21$ tested and recoil from their, and that would happen only if geopolitical tension will rise dramatically, insurgents killing soldiers or vice versa won't be enough. The second possibility, and this is what I believe is going to happen, is that the Russian stock market will rally directly from here.
sett44
2 years ago
Your rocket is Antares....down down down
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vlad.adrian PRO sett44
2 years ago
Read the description carefully and stop rushing in making predictions ;)
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OPEC vs Russia and US. OPEC is winning. Flooding the market with oil is going to take US domestic production down. More importantly Russia is also going to get slapped with oversupply because they too have higher oil production cost than Middle East OPEC members. Saudi does not like the Russia-China relationship, they feel left out. Russia's economy and equity market is also much more weighted to commodity prices than US equity markets. So if Saudi says Oil prices must go down further, and they are comfortable with $70, I'd stay away from Russia stocks.
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vlad.adrian PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
I don't know much about fundamentals, so thank you for adding that.
I believe that the Russian market is at a very interesting point right now, and so is copper which is highly correlated. My buy order is very close to be triggered. If I get stopped out, I think that there is going to be a lot of selling because the level where we stand has been holding the market for ages, and once it gets broken...
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sett44
2 years ago
Rocket is down.....
Are u happy?
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Saudi might wait for third OPEC meeting next spring before cutting supply. However, if global demand does pick up next year, which it is looking like it will, demand will keep oil in check. Russia is in serious trouble here. Russia needs a sustained $70/80 barrel to balance budget. Russia ETF will probably see single digits.
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vlad.adrian PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
I got stopped out JR. Lucky for me, I was long USDRUB and I ended up making more back the money, it acted as a hedge. Anyway, this was a good trade, even if it was a losing trade.
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vlad.adrian PRO sett44
2 years ago
No. Guess why? because I am a trader and I lost money. But guess what? I'm not mad either, because losing is part of the game. If you would be a trader, you would know that.
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ZYou vlad.adrian
2 years ago
very good.... trader ..... less talk........ only bet.... dont look back.... maybe you will get chance at rsx..
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