I don't have a specific catalyst to break this ratio, but I do some some trouble on the of individual airline stocks. Delta, for example, is sitting at a level where 10-days have traded and it topped out in price 15 trading ago and 6.4% higher, so the momentum of buying has stalled and seems ready for a test to the downside.
The last time this wide of a performance spread showed up between these two sectors, there was a massive slide in the far more volatile airline index ($XAL). Note the red arrow on the chart.
The red box notes the previous time when the retail index had topped out while the Airlines kept soaring ever higher. The current market action in the retail seems to be mimicking that last time to some degree.
Risk 10% loss to make 15% on the pair: XAL short versus a long position in RTH . More exact details to follow.
Tim - Sunday, 10:18PM EST, March 30, 2014