Although big indices like S&P500 and Nasdaq, favouring large cap companies, have still got potential to update historic highs - what is small caps index Russell 2000 telling us? It has already dropped by 30%, is there more downside and is it indicating that real US economy already in trouble?
Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves):
Looking at weekly timeframe it is visible that sharp drop in March 2020 has completed fourth wave of an impulse that has been developing since the great financial crisis of 2008
The proposed scenario suggests that the 5th wave has culminated in November 2021 and since then the next global correction has started which is likely to last even longer than the previous one that stretched from 1998 to 2009 - it's shocking to think of a correction for 11 years or longer
The most interesting opportunity however, is the potential development of an Expanding Triangle which may have been formed with A-B-C-D waves already
And given that there was an optimistic bounce on Friday 13th May in all the markets, there is a potential move for Russell 2000 towards $2140 to complete this triangle
In this case the next move to the downside may have a great opportunity with nearly 50% for shorting the index and expect the target in the range between $1000 and $1300 which represent 0.618x and 0.5x Fibonacci retracement levels of the global wave 3
What do you think about this idea and US economy as a whole?
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