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DaddySawbucks
Jun 9, 2020 3:22 PM

RUT Rejection at 0.786 Fibo Short

TVC:RUT240
US Small Cap 2000 IndexTVC

Description

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LIkely headed lower IMO. Just guessin'... not investment advice!

Trade active

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Short in the July 150P. This is a frantic MOMO rush to get into FAANGS; they dump everything else! NDX 100 up while the rest of market cracks.

This is tulip bulb mania, redux.

Trade closed: target reached

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Closed the gap from last week and entered oversold. Direction unclear; best to cover and watch IMO.

Trade active

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Took a small bull spread position wtih ETF at 139.70 in Jun 140C short the 12 Jun 144s. Should give a small bounce from deep oversold IMO.

Trade closed manually

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Calls didn't work out, stop-lossed with the short leg gone in half. Probly closed at LOTD; who knows?!

Comment

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marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-index-of-small-cap-stocks-sinks-51-and-is-on-pace-for-ugliest-daily-drop-in-2-months-2020-06-11?mod=mw_latestnews

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Shorted EOD small position bear spread, now we can bite nails all night lol!

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Rolled short legs and added; covered on gapfill; shorted again at retracement going into Monday. Next weeek will likely cascade IMO.

Trade closed: target reached

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Closed the shorts early on and rolled into calls. Did real good. Not sure yet whether this is going to form an impulsive move in DT or an ABC. Either way it's on rally.

Trade closed manually

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Closed the longs now in cash; see if it bulls higher Tues. Pure crapshooot atm IMO.

Trade active

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Back in it on 6/16. Very characteristic break down and retest rally to TL; rejecting AH.
Trend AnalysisFibonacci Retracement
Comments
hungry_hippo
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Nicely played bud.
DaddySawbucks
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@hungry_hippo, Ty I'm a slow learner lol. Little EOD sell here looks like Devil's Tower in the afternoon!
hungry_hippo
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@DaddySawbucks, ya nailed it this time and now you're playing with GM, lol.

Watch the indicators, I goofed this morning, should have joined you, but I didn;t have the time to pay full attention to the market today. Oh well.

There are opportunities every week, so not gonna force a play now.
hungry_hippo
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@DaddySawbucks, just remember, you really only need one good day every week.... it's OK to stay cash.
DaddySawbucks
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@hungry_hippo, But I want to speculate feverishly every day, run up plunge limits and overtrade my account to get massive margin calls, lose my 4x DT status and get 90-day restrictions in addition to the pain of losing precious capital! Come on, where's the fun in sitting out?!
hungry_hippo
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@DaddySawbucks, lol. You've already made money this week, learn how to relax.
Trader865x
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Your Bearish Thesis with the Nectar Pattern was probably correct but Mr. Market wanted to trick you into believing otherwise. It definitely appears that this powerful countertrend rally has completed (it was on thin ice or volume anyway). Bearmarket rallies are very powerful (alot of hopium and denial priced into them) and can trick you into thinking everything is all clear.
DaddySawbucks
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@Trader865x, Word. Ty for encouraging comment. It does appear to be a Bat or Cypher/Nenstar in longer-term window, from Feb > May.

Typically the cascade from these is 50% of the run-up, or ~ 500 SPX pips (3200 - 2200 ish). If it plays out, gonna close that gap at 2498 IMO.
hungry_hippo
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The way futures are acting, there's a possibility of another cascading waterfall.
DaddySawbucks
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@hungry_hippo, Yes I shorted EOD on the AH lift. IMO will give sharp correction, maybe go double bottom eh.
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