warrenbudget

ROLLS ROYCE - WYCKOFF THAT MIMICS THE 2018 BTC RALLY

Long
OTC:RYCEY   Rolls Royce Holdings plc
This post is to demonstrate a variety of trading techniques and relationships amongst similar patterns. Although this is focused on RYCEY , I provide reference to RTX as a representation of airline engine manufacturing and reference the 2018 BTC consolidation.

Lately I've been studying the Wyckoff Distribution and found eerie similarities that are worth sharing.

2018 BTC Comparison of Wyckoff Distribution
Take a look at the 2018 BTC consolidation. We have clean Wyckoff distribution with the absence of the Spring since there was a lot of buying pressure to turn the market around.

Now check the recent RYCEY consolidation.

Here is the ideal Wyckoff distribution
https://image.binance.vision/editor-uplo...

Moving Average Strategy
Although we typically look for a Spring inflexion point to mark the end of accumulation, sometimes it just isn't there. The similarity between the daily 50ema and 100ema is what leads me to be inclined to bet that we won't have a Spring this time. Notice how we are pinched right between them and they are near crossing?

Eliot Wave Interpretation
Almost everyone watching RYCEY is aware of the 94% discount off ATH's and we are no where near pre-pandemic levels. In this chart, I've combined Eliot Wave principles to show completion of the ABC correction with subdivision of wave C - we have wave 1-2 extension landing right at the 2.272 which is what we look for for wave 5 completions.

Wyckoff Interpretation
In addition, the Wyckoff interpretation demands that you pay attention to volume! Look at this huge uptick in volume from the end of last year when the dividend was cut, and it still remains relatively high to this day. These are never before seen levels of volume with relatively no price movement since the big drop down into the $1 range. All of this hints that Rolls Royce is ready for a huge turnaround. My first target is $3.

Using Competitors as a Proxy
As initially mentioned, we are still looking to finish wave 3 for RTX which I am using as a proxy for RYCEY and the larger airline industry. Another leg up could correspond with a breakout of RYCEY and consolidation above the breakout zone as RTX pulls back for a wave 4. You can find that idea posted below in the related ideas.

Link to
RTX Post

More info on Wyckoff distributions

Other examples of Wyckoff Distribution

Thanks for reading!!
Comment: We clearly did not bounce up as anticipated. Instead we are looking for a spring.

Note the major TL resistance on the downtrend that we have been dancing with. It's possibly we come back down, break the $1.31 low and backtest this TL


Comment: The problem with this post is it did not consider change in marketcap back in 2020.

For this reason I reverted to using RR. as the primary ticker. The Wyckoff distribution is really clear on this chart.