Kumowizard
Long

Sugar - It may print an inverse H&S. Watch Heikin Ashi!

ICEUSA:SB1!   Sugar #11
110 2 5
We may have a good swing long entry point ard 12,00, which if triggered, can be sized up later on further signals, and can provide a nice risk reward.

Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup has been bearish since 2012! Price started drop from 25-26, so it is down by more than 50 %. From time to time we see nice multi week pull backs, but bears always resume selling and hit lower lows.
- The trend channel is obvious too. Stronger bearish supports are at 13,60 / 14,50 / 15,00. Just above 15,00 we could really talk about a strategic bullish reversal
- Heikin Ashi is counter bullish , a pull bac             has started three weeks ago, and so far its momentum is not really strong (meanwhile there was a front contract maturity as well, current contract is October delivery).

Daily:
- Ichimoku setup has turned neutral from bearish . Price is shaded by future Kumo. Price moved above Kijun Sen, but turned lower from Kumo and retesting Kijun now whoch should act as support. We also have a weak bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross.
- Heikin Ashi started to show signs of consolidation at the Kumo 4-5 days ago, later enterred into pull back phase. So far there is no lower low today, and depending on the close haDelta/SMA3 may cross back up.
- If Price manages to hold above 11,85 for few more days, then we could have a high probability bullish pattern in form of an Inverse Head and Shoulders . Watch for Heikin Ashi buy signal: doji-like candle followed by a bullish one, or a sudden candle colour change at once. In both cases haDelta quantification will confirm with a move back above zero line!

Strategy:
1. Agressive traders may try to accumulate some longs here ard Kijun Sen
2. Cautious traders need to wait for the pattern to develop or for a firm Heikin Ashi buy signal
3. Really conservative traders may even wait for a bullish Kumo breakout.

If the Inverse H&S pattern gets validation and Price also breaks above Kumo, the measured tgt             will be the 13,50-14,00 area.

p.s.: This year my trading in Sugar             was quite sh*t, so as always, check this idea in your own model too, use your risk and money managemetn system. Never follow anything blindly.
p.s.2.: I am already long
Krio
a year ago
Very interesting post again! It looks like support worked so far.
Reply
This inverse H&S did not work. Price broke back below possible or "expected" neckline. however it has still not printed a lower low. So from now I'd say go long only with a Kumo break above 12,35
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