Conclusion:
- buy 10.40 in the next few weeks if provided, there shall be rebound.
- the worst case bottom may be as low as 7.50 in 2016.
- Strong USD, Large production, weak BRL, Weak demand.. created a trend that will reverse somewhere in the next 12 months.
1) overall we are close to a bottom.
2) in time too after a 5 years correction.
3) if the market falls by another 35% it would really reach long term supports (around 7.5). This maximum low may not be reached and would probably be reached in 2016 if so.
4) the area 10 would provide a decent rebound if reached in the next few weeks.