RyanDreBach

SBUX could break out

NASDAQ:SBUX   STARBUCKS CORP
Growth in China

SBUX same store sale are expected to increase over the next few years as China's middle class doubles, but are currently flat to slightly negative.

In spite of same-store sales in China falling, SBUX revenue is up 20% in China due to the opening of new stores at a rate of one shop every 15 hours in China.

China has recently partnered with Alibaba to gain marketshare in the online delivery of coffee , but there remains some competition with the first Chinese coffee unicorn partnering with Tencent for delivery services and customer analytics.

Overall Growth

On average, same-store sales are only increasing at a pitiful 3%, but is expected to remain positive for the foreseeable future.

Current Valuation

Relative to the market, SBUX is undervalued. A PE of 24 or so would be more ideal, which would is 33% higher than it's current PE of 18. Assuming current expectations and earnings growth remains above 10%, that would add another 10% on a PE of 24 next year, putting my PT at about $88, and near around $100 by the Jan 2020 options expiration.

Given 9/33 analysts have a rating of HOLD, 14/33 analysts have a rating of BUY, and 10/33 analysts have a rating of STRONG BUY, with 0/33 analysts have a rating of SELL, I think SBUX will grow into its industries average PE or a bit higher at around 24.

SBUX is on the verge of breaking above it's bear trend into a bullish one.

2020 Jan 17, Strike $75 calls could have an upside of 2,000% ($1 to $20+) if the break above it's bear trend occurs in the next month or so and it's quarter to quarter upward trend is sustained into the long-term.
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