Here we see a basic Elliott Wave Pattern where wave 2(corrective wave) has not retraced 100% to wave 1, wave 3 is clearly the longest, wave 4 has not retraced to the top of wave 1, and wave 4 (corrective wave), appears to be yielding to wave 5, which is potentially the final impulse wave. Siacoin features longer addresses which are cryptographically more secure with longer strings of characters, as compared to standard BTC and other types of digital asset addresses. This is possibly my favorite little guy in the digital asset world today. Those who picked it up at 40 Satoshis are rockin'.
Order cancelled
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So after all that, price came down past the 178 level, which has invalidated our wave four. What this means is that price is likely to continue falling, however the entire uptrend represents a motive wave 1, and the recent downtrend represents the corrective wave 2, so we are still looking for that reversal into the motive wave 3, but expecting it to happen at a lower resistance level, perhaps 176 or the 100 mark. Happy Hunting and watch this one closely.
At this juncture, the timeframe that I would recommend for being in this trade would be a min/max of one to six months, depending on your risk tolerance, capitalization, and other factors. My target for profits on this coin, in that time frame, would be about 100% gain. That would put price right up near it's all time high (roughly 750 Satoshis). At that point, my suggestion would be to take a chunk of profits: for example, you could liquidate half of your position and leave the other half in case price breaks its all time-high and continues upward, which is entirely possible. Remember, whether you buy or sell, risk management is always the more important factor. Happy Hunting.
Piptocurrency
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With a stop-loss at 178 Satoshis and profit target at 750, and current market execution, the risk:reward ration on this trade would be roughly 1:2.5, which is very desirable (I'm doing the math in my head, so cut me some slack, people). Happy Hunting!
Piptocurrency
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Hey Guys and Gals,
I wanted to post an update on this trade in case anyone is wondering how they should analyze this particular coin from here. First, it's always important to understand the circulating supply of any given asset. For Siacoin, that number is around 27 billion units, so already you should be thinking about just how many coins are in play and how that large number can affect price action in a short amount of time. Since I published this trade idea, price has dropped about 20 Satoshis, and I continue to view this as a buy-in opportunity. The rudimentary analysis here and prospective long trade is still viable UNLESS price comes all the way back down to the 178 Satoshi mark. If that occurs, all bets are off. The 178 mark is imperative because it is the top of wave 1, and once wave 4 touches wave one, the entire pattern is invalidated. Other threats to a profitable long trade here include the possibility of a "truncated" fifth wave, which is basically a fakeout: where the final wave of buying pressure simply runs out of mmmphh! Typically, a truncated wave will not go much higher than the top of the 3rd wave if it reaches there at all, so beware of a weak, sickly fifth wave with limited upward movement, and WATCH your open trades to ensure that you're able to take optimum profits. Happy Hunting!
Piptocurrency
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Waves are always superimposed within other layers of waves, down to the grand supercycle (hundreds of years). Elliott Wave Theory is a theory of psychology and thus applicable to any market, however, in this case, SC has not existed but for 2 years or so. Thus, we can only work with the waves that the market gives us. Some of the challenges you mentioned are the reason why I labelled this pattern RUDIMENTARY. I'll say it again just so you see it again. RUDIMENTARY. To continue the wave analysis you would break down the components of each motive and corrective wave, into their own smaller wave patterns, and this would act as confirmation, if each leg were upheld, of the rudimentary pattern outlined here. Often further wave analysis can reveal broken rules in the smaller wave sequences, which can invalidate the main pattern. The starting point with crypto is usually very easy, it's the first moment of any significant, noticeable price action. With other charts and types of securities, like the traditional equities that you mention, which often have several years or decades of market history, both starting point and multi-frame wave analysis can be much harder to identify and perform. You are right that the market is constantly discovering the unknown, however, what I can tell you with absolute certainty is that there ain't NOTHING wrong about 1500% profits, young student. My RUDIMENTARY analysis here is perfect. YOU probably didn't look at the entire chart, which is the most important rule of any analysis, or else you simply don't know the conditions of wave four, which you should have memorized. Go look at the chart, pull up the Elliott rules, and draw it on your own. Always obtain multiple confirmations before entering a trade :)
VolatilityRocks
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@Piptocurrency, I was thinking the same thing about the psychological aspect, where charting is nothing more than a manifestation of psychology. Charts move up and down based on human emotion (even though some of us know emotion should not be part of our trading plan). No matter the market, you'll always have people getting nervous about locking in their profits and selling their holdings, followed by the next who get nervous after seeing any sell offs after a market high, and those who are thinking the same thing, but are afraid of missing out on higher profits so they wait and wait and finally give in and sell off, and so on and so on until the final group weeds itself out by finally selling about the same level they bought in at, etc. etc.. And then with new lows, the cycle continues with new consolidations/accumulations producing an upward movement, followed by those chasing the "green" until reaching new highs and coming full circle. I see no reason why such analysis should not work in any market. Psychology is psychology. Black out the name of any chart, know nothing of what its about, and you can still trade on a technical basis from the chart itself. I don't imagine Elliott would be turning over in his grave. Apart from the fact that his muscles are shriveled and dried up, he was not always correct in his own analysis. Does this mean that when he was wrong that he was turning over in his bed? ;-)
thetazeta
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I have a similar idea, though I called your 3 a 5 - and anyway I believe I was wrong now, and you may be too (no offense). Elliott would turn over in his grave if he saw that (4) wave you've labeled.
The last couple weeks I started to feel EW doesn't quite apply to crypto like it does to stocks. So I re-read Elliott's books plus re-read Frost and Prechter carefully, like digesting every page. The main thing I'm coming away with is Elliot and Prechter are stuck in a mindset of continuation. They view all waves as fractal continuations, within larger waves, and can't imagine quantum change. That's a real challenge for crypto because it is a quantum change, and this raises the question where do you define the start then. I'm convinced no one knows this, and we will have to discover this in out own time!