First noticed this when I was scouting ABR as a potential candidate for puts. I was looking for H&S setups, and liked the look of it. If you look at ABR chart (daily or weekly) I imagine you'll see what I mean. Looks like we're peeling off the 20MA on the 1D to the downside. (Earnings are tomorrow, as a heads up)
But yes, this led me to look at other names in the sector to try and add to my overall conviction. And I found that while some have already made their move to the downside - I also found a bunch of tickers that seem like they're on the cusp of breaking down
Apart from ABR the other names I'm looking at for moves toward downside in the sector are O and UDR . O especially. In terms of more of a 'macro' view this year I think with increasing interest rates, inflation through the roof etc. I think real estate sector is going to feel some notable pain this year. But of course, theories only mean so much, let's just focus on the chart setups as/when they come. For now, the sector looks bearish
The options I'm personally trading currently are: ABR Mar 18th '22 17.5p (cost basis 2.51) and O Mar 18th '22 67.5p (cost basis 2.05)
Posting this moreso to draw attention to the sector in general, rather than my exact personal plays necessarily. Hence using SCHH as the image for this 'idea' so people can see the sector overall. Note the rejection/inability to breach the 20MA on the weekly. I think this thing could sag and fold over.
Hope this is helpful to some! And as always, please let me know your thoughts/comments if you have any! I'm always open to new ideas, viewpoints and constructive criticism etc.
Out O call for 35.7% gain. 2.02 to 2.79. Saw earnings were being reported tomorrow (or today after market close?) and didn't wanna hold through. I may regret it if they flop earnings, but hey ho. Wasn't feeling to lose out to IV crush, or to lose gains if they smash their earnings expectations. Can always get in and trade the reaction to their e.r tomorrow if applicable
Still in ABR, took a tiny avg down today, that I may cut by e.o.d. Undecided currently. But yeah, those cons are sat at -22%. I still feel bearish on sector as a whole, and I feel like their earnings beat was just a speedbump in the true road/direction. But - I may be wrong. Will play it as it comes.
Hope everyone had a good long weekend, and are having a good week so far.
Still in ABR, took a tiny avg down today, that I may cut by e.o.d. Undecided currently. But yeah, those cons are sat at -22%. I still feel bearish on sector as a whole, and I feel like their earnings beat was just a speedbump in the true road/direction. But - I may be wrong. Will play it as it comes.
Hope everyone had a good long weekend, and are having a good week so far.