Momentum was weak since mid 2016. Recent strong sell-out after rising to the previous support line at 42.00.
Even though there is a strong resistence line at about 39.20, a break would provide hugh space for a drop.
The entry is relatively aggressive, but a targetable chance-risk-ratio of about 2 is for the first target is quite good and will likely be hit even if the suppport line will hold. If so, the overall trade (if 50:50 in size) will pay off a little profit. Second target provides a CRR of over 8.
*** As always, if you trade with real money make your own analysis, as the provided analysis is no trade recommendation and for theroetical learning only. So do not trade any of my trade-analysis with real money. ***
At the moment of publishing the trade a long position would not have been attractive for me. As mentioned, the last move down was strong. Bulls didn't immediatly jump in afterwards to take positions at the relatively cheap price level (compared with those after 2015). Moreover, the sell offs in the last months came frequently pretty strong whenever the price did recover for some notches.
However, I was not that sure about the support line to be broken - it was built and lastet for almost 3 years, but the high possible CRR, which was realistic due to the absence of major further resistence lines, made the trade attractive enough.