First of all, I published a bearish view on SGDCNH on Jan. end. The pair rebounded from 4.84 to hit my daily supply zone around 4.89, followed by a series of bearish candles.
Now the price is around 4.835ish. It's coming towards the previous low and very likely to break this level.
It's a momentum play and my idea was based on the long wick candle on weekly. A weak SGD may indicate a few things below:
1. Inflation: Unlike U.S. and China, central bank in SG targets exchange rate. the little red dot replies on stuff imported from other countries, e.g. food. a stronger SGD helps to control inflation issues. local people might feel stressed for the potential rising living costs.
2. Investment: A weak SGD helps to spur the economic growth. Foreign investors may find good deals, e.g. properties.
Singapore is an open economy in the world, and it suffered a lot during the Covid-19 crisis. Government spent a lot of 'savings' on its books and launched a series of schemes and packages to support local companies and people. I do hope things become better. When border opens again and international travel resumes, the little red dot will be back to normal again!
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okie. Now previous swing low was violated. With a lower low created, price is expected to go down.