Hello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Note:
To see more information - review the linked ideas for more crypto and through the analysis links which provide explanation's for further resources.
Also to add - regarding the simplified method of the Shib Burning model, a full detailed model will be available - please contact me for further information.**
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Red = 4 Days
Yellow = 16 Hours
Orange = Daily
Dark Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
What is Shiba Inu Token?
The First look at the Shiba Inu token came in August of 2020, when its developers took live with the creation to the market, along with an anonymous creator known as “Ryoshi” with an initial supply of one quadrillion tokens, of which was to send 50% of all the tokens on Uniswap and threw away the key (effectively render useless). The remaining 50% were then gifted away, or “burned”, to the Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin.
Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence.
Market dominance
Understanding the Market Capitalisation of the coins history.
The privatised tracking will be found at the bottom - to view click the link.
Attached to the chart is Shiba Inu Dominance tracking - where a positive correlation relating to added userbase, volume of transactions using the 26-27th trading activity for reference
24-hour trading volume of $10,2B USD which adds overall long position sentiment.
What must happen now to the supply of ERC-20 tokens?
Well in order to reduce the supply will of course boost the price having a fixed circulation of tokens available will to those who hold will incur investors to gain.
The supply Total is
1,000,000,000,000,000 or 1Quadrillion coins;
where the following calcs have been removed;
Burn Wallet = -410,253,870,302,595
Uniswap = - 94,183,555,893
India Covid Relied = -10,139,544,347,612
Vitalik Buterin = -46,000,000,201,480 (0xab58)
Review the etherscan here for the transactions
https://etherscan.io/token/0x95ad61b0a150d79219dcf64e1e6cc01f0b64c4ce?a=0xab5801a7d398351b8be11c439e05c5b3259aec9b
Est circulating supply retained
497,730,966,630,395 or 497Trillion coins
With Supply Burn Triggers - let's do the maths.
so using every listing $25k shib and leash - burn implements.
Use 1,000 listings for $25k = 25million burned
Using a burn rate of 3%, and based on 100m coins and an annual 30% YOY gain in price with a supply of 497T coins. Based on price at a current price 0.00005660
The formula would look like so.
=current price*(1+Annual increase YOY)+(Coin supply-new supply after burn)/New net total coin supply
Other variables to consider will be;** Refer to model note
Implied Crypto market cap, Implied ship market cap, implied Price & Burning factors
Refer to BTC chart below or to track the Crypto Dominance vs Total market cap - refer to the link below
Doge Vs Shiba Inu against relative market Dominances.
Attached is the private tracking of the two coins and the represented inverse correlation between the two Coins.
The negative correlation of the Dogecoin price as well as the dominance is taking effect with the rise of the inverse correlation coin Shiba, whereby the addition of trade volume and ecosystems on which the crypto's are built on are now beginning to take effect.
With Doge having a peak of 4% of the market and a market cap of $89.5-7BN, the coins price is now on a market decline as it is now established, but has not yet reached the desired imbalance nor %Dominance which comes with it.
A possible coin fluctuation price can be highly probable between the purple imbalance
Doge Imbalance upon the monthly and weekly combined
8 Hour chart
What is the 8 hour chart showing?
Well firstly, a great formation of a correctional symmetrical triangle using the 8hour session candles. This chart pattern has formed through the formation of either a declining lower highs and or an increasing lower lows.
Two lines are drawn upon the line squeezes which moves towards an Apex. Depending on inclining higher lows and higher highs within the structure squeeze, then the pattern will produce a bullish continuation upon the Apex breakout.
Chart pattern - Symmetrical triangle 8 Hour
Bearish example using Shiba INU
A Bullish Example
Monthly Imbalance
Thus far there is not an abundance of Data provided from brokers and platforms - further imbalances will become clearer, however with data analysed - price had immediately sold off upon listing. Creating an immediate low of 0.0000569. The identifiable formation is a cup and handle which can be more visible on the weekly and four day chart. However with an introduction of further establishment of the traction from fundamental plays where new listings occur price can adopt an established consolidation. So new entrants to the market who began immediate price action on the monthly basis begin an immediate change of hands adding buyers to a selling market from the inception.
This has now created a trading rang on the following four months listed whereby 0.0000471 is the established low point forming the monthly imbalance as well as the upper range of the imbalance reaching 0.00000979.
The weekly Imbalance
The reason here for the half candle imbalance is provided for two reasons;
1. Being the Formation of the 50% low Fibonacci from the peak 1.00 at the introduction of Shiba Inu to the market.
2. The second reason for the 50% candle imbalance - is due to the upper 50% quartile using probability for price to retest the body of the candle for buying targets.
Price did change hands from a selling market by creating three consecutive higher lows on the weekly timeframe, offering a >50% probability for buying power and long positions to be taken.
Again using a fundamental backing with further adoption of users and further development of the project to become a useable token, the development through to the usage of Leash and Bone. - revert below to what is Leash & Bone.
Four Day chart
Why here?
The pull back on the four day chart had resulted in the building block which had perfectly placed itself upon the Fibonacci pivot zones upon the 38.2-50% - this formed the block to gain pivotal long additions as a double tweezer bottom occurred as well as a bearish candle which pulled back, this creates to most shorter time frame traders being daily time frame and below, a correctional move to instate a block which closes on the half body of the introductory candle from the top wick. This failed to break the weekly imbalance and has shown a high probability for added long positions.
Market Capitalisation of ShibaINU:
Refer to Coinmarket cap for further information regarding supplies, analytics and the ever changing landscape of the Volume, market cap of the top Crypto's.
https://coinmarketcap.com/
Four Hour chart
The four hour has shown two areas of key interest for adding longs, one key market structure offers the consolidation where price broke out of the triangle apex and engulfed, but came to a high, of which needed a move to look for a Fibonacci pivot based on the structure newly formed which showed a pivot point between 50-61.8% but provided tweezer bottom which is perfect rejection candles to see when analysing the candlesticks.
The rejection upon the 50% again has provided the extension pattern to complete at a 1.618 Extension and further, but ofcourse first the hurdle is to retest the Supply imbalance based upon the Fibonacci "0"* and the introduction of the all time high. (See below)
A smaller scale imbalance which has just been used at the time of writing has shown the netting of, the selling pressure has netted of the wick - therefore closing out at a showing the zone is valid as an equal low has incurred and buying change of hands has occurred again upon counter-traders and profit takers.
*Fibo
Token Burns
Watcher Guru - looking into public wallet addresses - looking at the movement of 700m tokens being burnt with the flowing stockpile being reduced. The burning mechanism is being watched slowly. This will be incorporated within the model.
The wallet is below.
etherscan.io/address...834a540550e23463aacb
Shiba Inu Ecosystem:
What is Leash and Bone?
LEASH tokens are staked or buried, the one staking the coins receives a reward in the form of x LEASH tokens, effectively the holders of x Leash holders are part of the liquidity pool, where a new block is created holders receive a proportional value to share of the pool. The digger of the of token receives a share of Leash ETH SSLP *
Bone
burying BONE tokens, the user receives tBONE. This entitles the holder the right to be part of a pool that provides the members 1% of all the BONE per block. And digging, in this case, is similar to the function for the LEASH tokens. The person digging or providing liquidity receives a share of the Bon -ETH SSLP*
What is Shibaswap?
This is a decentralized exchange created for the Shiba Inu community. The community gathers around three main coins: SHIB (the foundational currency of the Shiba Inu, II - LEASH (incentivised on ShibaSwap), and BONE (ShibaSwap’s governance token). The exchange/Swap allows buyers, sellers of the ERC-20 token to be supported by the Shibaswap exchange.
Bury
Staking (also known as BURY): staking pools for the ecosystem’s tokens (SHIB, BONE, LEASH). It allows you to earn token rewards while staking the tokens. Each pool has different time-locking intervals as well as APYs. Rewards are in the 3 figures percentages and are paid in BONE.
Further fundamental news which assist the price increases
NFT token - 10,000 digitalized “lovable creatures” sold out in minutes, Shiba Inu NFTs were available only on the protocol’s DEX – ShibaSwap, buying and trading will be “completely free (except for the gas fee)." - which uses ETH from 0.1ETH +
Shiba INU token burns - through transactions
Bigger Entertainment - 20Shib tokens burned per song while listening to a playlist of 397 songs.
Robinhood listing* - creating further opportunities to further userbase now having access to the crypto to trade.
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Note:
To see more information - review the linked ideas for more crypto and through the analysis links which provide explanation's for further resources.
Also to add - regarding the simplified method of the Shib Burning model, a full detailed model will be available - please contact me for further information.**
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Red = 4 Days
Yellow = 16 Hours
Orange = Daily
Dark Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
What is Shiba Inu Token?
The First look at the Shiba Inu token came in August of 2020, when its developers took live with the creation to the market, along with an anonymous creator known as “Ryoshi” with an initial supply of one quadrillion tokens, of which was to send 50% of all the tokens on Uniswap and threw away the key (effectively render useless). The remaining 50% were then gifted away, or “burned”, to the Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin.
Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence.
Market dominance
Understanding the Market Capitalisation of the coins history.
The privatised tracking will be found at the bottom - to view click the link.
Attached to the chart is Shiba Inu Dominance tracking - where a positive correlation relating to added userbase, volume of transactions using the 26-27th trading activity for reference
24-hour trading volume of $10,2B USD which adds overall long position sentiment.
What must happen now to the supply of ERC-20 tokens?
Well in order to reduce the supply will of course boost the price having a fixed circulation of tokens available will to those who hold will incur investors to gain.
The supply Total is
1,000,000,000,000,000 or 1Quadrillion coins;
where the following calcs have been removed;
Burn Wallet = -410,253,870,302,595
Uniswap = - 94,183,555,893
India Covid Relied = -10,139,544,347,612
Vitalik Buterin = -46,000,000,201,480 (0xab58)
Review the etherscan here for the transactions
https://etherscan.io/token/0x95ad61b0a150d79219dcf64e1e6cc01f0b64c4ce?a=0xab5801a7d398351b8be11c439e05c5b3259aec9b
Est circulating supply retained
497,730,966,630,395 or 497Trillion coins
With Supply Burn Triggers - let's do the maths.
so using every listing $25k shib and leash - burn implements.
Use 1,000 listings for $25k = 25million burned
Using a burn rate of 3%, and based on 100m coins and an annual 30% YOY gain in price with a supply of 497T coins. Based on price at a current price 0.00005660
The formula would look like so.
=current price*(1+Annual increase YOY)+(Coin supply-new supply after burn)/New net total coin supply
Other variables to consider will be;** Refer to model note
Implied Crypto market cap, Implied ship market cap, implied Price & Burning factors
Refer to BTC chart below or to track the Crypto Dominance vs Total market cap - refer to the link below
Doge Vs Shiba Inu against relative market Dominances.
Attached is the private tracking of the two coins and the represented inverse correlation between the two Coins.
The negative correlation of the Dogecoin price as well as the dominance is taking effect with the rise of the inverse correlation coin Shiba, whereby the addition of trade volume and ecosystems on which the crypto's are built on are now beginning to take effect.
With Doge having a peak of 4% of the market and a market cap of $89.5-7BN, the coins price is now on a market decline as it is now established, but has not yet reached the desired imbalance nor %Dominance which comes with it.
A possible coin fluctuation price can be highly probable between the purple imbalance
Doge Imbalance upon the monthly and weekly combined
8 Hour chart
What is the 8 hour chart showing?
Well firstly, a great formation of a correctional symmetrical triangle using the 8hour session candles. This chart pattern has formed through the formation of either a declining lower highs and or an increasing lower lows.
Two lines are drawn upon the line squeezes which moves towards an Apex. Depending on inclining higher lows and higher highs within the structure squeeze, then the pattern will produce a bullish continuation upon the Apex breakout.
Chart pattern - Symmetrical triangle 8 Hour
Bearish example using Shiba INU
A Bullish Example
Monthly Imbalance
Thus far there is not an abundance of Data provided from brokers and platforms - further imbalances will become clearer, however with data analysed - price had immediately sold off upon listing. Creating an immediate low of 0.0000569. The identifiable formation is a cup and handle which can be more visible on the weekly and four day chart. However with an introduction of further establishment of the traction from fundamental plays where new listings occur price can adopt an established consolidation. So new entrants to the market who began immediate price action on the monthly basis begin an immediate change of hands adding buyers to a selling market from the inception.
This has now created a trading rang on the following four months listed whereby 0.0000471 is the established low point forming the monthly imbalance as well as the upper range of the imbalance reaching 0.00000979.
The weekly Imbalance
The reason here for the half candle imbalance is provided for two reasons;
1. Being the Formation of the 50% low Fibonacci from the peak 1.00 at the introduction of Shiba Inu to the market.
2. The second reason for the 50% candle imbalance - is due to the upper 50% quartile using probability for price to retest the body of the candle for buying targets.
Price did change hands from a selling market by creating three consecutive higher lows on the weekly timeframe, offering a >50% probability for buying power and long positions to be taken.
Again using a fundamental backing with further adoption of users and further development of the project to become a useable token, the development through to the usage of Leash and Bone. - revert below to what is Leash & Bone.
Four Day chart
Why here?
The pull back on the four day chart had resulted in the building block which had perfectly placed itself upon the Fibonacci pivot zones upon the 38.2-50% - this formed the block to gain pivotal long additions as a double tweezer bottom occurred as well as a bearish candle which pulled back, this creates to most shorter time frame traders being daily time frame and below, a correctional move to instate a block which closes on the half body of the introductory candle from the top wick. This failed to break the weekly imbalance and has shown a high probability for added long positions.
Market Capitalisation of ShibaINU:
Refer to Coinmarket cap for further information regarding supplies, analytics and the ever changing landscape of the Volume, market cap of the top Crypto's.
https://coinmarketcap.com/
Four Hour chart
The four hour has shown two areas of key interest for adding longs, one key market structure offers the consolidation where price broke out of the triangle apex and engulfed, but came to a high, of which needed a move to look for a Fibonacci pivot based on the structure newly formed which showed a pivot point between 50-61.8% but provided tweezer bottom which is perfect rejection candles to see when analysing the candlesticks.
The rejection upon the 50% again has provided the extension pattern to complete at a 1.618 Extension and further, but ofcourse first the hurdle is to retest the Supply imbalance based upon the Fibonacci "0"* and the introduction of the all time high. (See below)
A smaller scale imbalance which has just been used at the time of writing has shown the netting of, the selling pressure has netted of the wick - therefore closing out at a showing the zone is valid as an equal low has incurred and buying change of hands has occurred again upon counter-traders and profit takers.
Token Burns
Watcher Guru - looking into public wallet addresses - looking at the movement of 700m tokens being burnt with the flowing stockpile being reduced. The burning mechanism is being watched slowly. This will be incorporated within the model.
The wallet is below.
etherscan.io/address...834a540550e23463aacb
Shiba Inu Ecosystem:
What is Leash and Bone?
LEASH tokens are staked or buried, the one staking the coins receives a reward in the form of x LEASH tokens, effectively the holders of x Leash holders are part of the liquidity pool, where a new block is created holders receive a proportional value to share of the pool. The digger of the of token receives a share of Leash ETH SSLP *
Bone
burying BONE tokens, the user receives tBONE. This entitles the holder the right to be part of a pool that provides the members 1% of all the BONE per block. And digging, in this case, is similar to the function for the LEASH tokens. The person digging or providing liquidity receives a share of the Bon -ETH SSLP*
What is Shibaswap?
This is a decentralized exchange created for the Shiba Inu community. The community gathers around three main coins: SHIB (the foundational currency of the Shiba Inu, II - LEASH (incentivised on ShibaSwap), and BONE (ShibaSwap’s governance token). The exchange/Swap allows buyers, sellers of the ERC-20 token to be supported by the Shibaswap exchange.
Bury
Staking (also known as BURY): staking pools for the ecosystem’s tokens (SHIB, BONE, LEASH). It allows you to earn token rewards while staking the tokens. Each pool has different time-locking intervals as well as APYs. Rewards are in the 3 figures percentages and are paid in BONE.
Further fundamental news which assist the price increases
NFT token - 10,000 digitalized “lovable creatures” sold out in minutes, Shiba Inu NFTs were available only on the protocol’s DEX – ShibaSwap, buying and trading will be “completely free (except for the gas fee)." - which uses ETH from 0.1ETH +
Shiba INU token burns - through transactions
Bigger Entertainment - 20Shib tokens burned per song while listening to a playlist of 397 songs.
Robinhood listing* - creating further opportunities to further userbase now having access to the crypto to trade.
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
