5/8/24 - $shls - tough to own >$7, but patient for mid $6s

5/8/24 - vrockstar - would LOVE to own this in the $6s, do we get there today? "probably not". what's my math here - simple. name has debt, and despite cash gen we're not paying it down in any "one year+" context. so it really comes down to say FCF yield, which at current open levels is in the ~6% range. not high enough for a tough industry/ high financing requirements needed (so rates need to actually start to decline... 2H... so perhaps you own in end 3Q/4Q all else equal?) BUT if if i thought about what it's worth "today" i'd say trough multiple on 60c of EPS power (perhaps the multiple is too low at 10x, or the EPS could still see revised downward - probably - you pick - so i'm shooting in the middle) - that's a $6 stock. again the debt matters. 6% gives you high single digit nearly 10% fcf yield and the stock is an obvious buy. I think anything less than 7$/shr is good 12-18 mo money, but in order to make money into year end, i'd suggest you should simply set an alert at $6.50 and decide how to size manage from there. tricky name. highly shorted. but needs another catalyst to start convincingly moving in the upward direction. caution to protect your PnL for now.