Here's where the silver market is now: After 5 quarterly bars without a new high, a downtrend is set up from the high at $49 and the movement down out of the 27-35 range reached its natural target at $18. Also, the downside price projection happened in the first bar, so the fact that the market is just marking time and going sideways is alerting me to a strong market with buyers accumulating steadily at the low end of the range.
The downside projection is the high of $49.8 to the mode at $29.6 (the low of the quarter labeled 2012-10-01), converted to percentage is 40%. 40% down from $29.6 is $11.8 down or $17.8. The low was actually $18.2, which is very close and good enough for technical analysis. $22.18 is the high for the current quarter. If Silver can break above $22.18 in April in the start of the next bar, then the 7-bar downtrend will not be in a strong position and the market can attempt to move back toward the mode starting at $29.6.
Therefore, this is the trade recommendation. $22.20 buy stop, $29.40 target, using stop loss $18.90 once long.
Note the downtrend from the high in 1980, it follows the same trending logic and rules. The market distributed for 16 bars (each bar is 3 months) and once the market disconnected from the largest concentration of price action of 16 bars, then it proceeds down for the amount of time at the concentration (mode).
I'd like to thank he user "carrytrade" for posting the chart of silver in quarterly format so that I could be inspired to do this analysis for you all in my proprietary methodology that I am showing you all here at TradingView.
Many happy returns.
Tim 10:36AM EST 3/11/2014
The downside projection is the high of $49.8 to the mode at $29.6 (the low of the quarter labeled 2012-10-01), converted to percentage is 40%. 40% down from $29.6 is $11.8 down or $17.8. The low was actually $18.2, which is very close and good enough for technical analysis. $22.18 is the high for the current quarter. If Silver can break above $22.18 in April in the start of the next bar, then the 7-bar downtrend will not be in a strong position and the market can attempt to move back toward the mode starting at $29.6.
Therefore, this is the trade recommendation. $22.20 buy stop, $29.40 target, using stop loss $18.90 once long.
Note the downtrend from the high in 1980, it follows the same trending logic and rules. The market distributed for 16 bars (each bar is 3 months) and once the market disconnected from the largest concentration of price action of 16 bars, then it proceeds down for the amount of time at the concentration (mode).
I'd like to thank he user "carrytrade" for posting the chart of silver in quarterly format so that I could be inspired to do this analysis for you all in my proprietary methodology that I am showing you all here at TradingView.
Many happy returns.
Tim 10:36AM EST 3/11/2014
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