I have 2 warnings here: 1. This is a weekly timeframe trade idea, and 2. This is a more advanced study using Fibonacci Time Counting and Elliott Waves.
What my disclaimers here is saying is that firstly, you have to consider how you want to implement this idea given that it is a long-term trade idea and larger downside can be hidden from the chart due to it being a WEEKLY timeframe. Second, I recognised that very few are properly trained in Elliott Waves and even fewer have heard of time counts. Thus, if you don't believe in the Elliott Waves, have never heard of it, have only read a page or 2 in a TA book, you are better off using other traditional TA ideas.
----- Now that the disclaimers are over and done with, let's begin:
Over here, I present you with the supercycle wave counts that I have (note that this has changed from my previous counts to cater for the time counting elements):
With that, we go over to the actual chart that I presented and I will point out a few things: 1. Note that I have drawn a (W)-(X)-(Y) that encompassed a down from $21.225 (W) to $16.070 [(Y) & (E)]. The formation contains an impulse move down (X), followed by a 3-wave correction (Y) and finally a symmetric triangle (A-B-C-D-E for (Z)). 2. The single point represented by (Z) & (E) is NOT THE LOWEST price in the corrective market structure. I do not speculate on the "WHY", I just take it as it is. 3. Time counting from (X) shows a relationship between the high points. We have 21 weeks, 21 weeks and 13 weeks. As of this writing, we are at the 8th week, which in itself is a Fibonacci number. Could Friday posts some last minute gains? If not, will we have to wait another 5 weeks (see point 4)? Note that (X) to (Z) takes 55 weeks, a Fibonacci number also. 4. Note that we are nearing the apex for a higher degree triangle and thus a move will come sooner rather than later (in terms of weekly timeframe).
Strategy If you are already a futures and options trader, you could long the futures or options directly. For the rest, exposure to Silver can be done either via the Silver ETFs (e.g. SIL, SLV) or via the Silver miners (e.g. AG, GPL). The choice is up to you. Personally, I prefer the miners (there are actually quite a lot of miners to choose from, you don't have choose pure silver miners) because they tend to go up more when the precious metal is up and more resilient against a down move in the metal. A mixture like GDX, GDXJ, HL will also work as they are fundamentally correlated. It is up to you.
Trade closed: stop reached
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Looks like the 8th count is again a reversal instead of a breakout.