I actually used this analogy from 2002 to 2012 to lay out why silver would go up in value dramatically since it was tracing out the pattern of the technology-driven bull market in gold. If you take a moment to reach Jim Roger's chapter in Jack Schwagers book on Market Wizards, you will read all about how gold was actually driven up by technology uses of gold, much the same as the way silver is used today.
Note the similar chart patterns: The big rally followed by a 50% decline ... a creeping rally that forms a triangle... then a blast off period which goes 8 months in silver and 9 months in gold. Silver advances about 4.5 times in value and gold advances about 6.4 times in value (note the way I calculated was to count to the highest monthly low, not to the highest high).
After the high there is a retest of the apex of the consolidation before another rally attempt is made.
I think we are on the verge of another jump in silver.
Enjoy -
Tim 2:40AM EST 7/15/2014 20.88 Silver last
Comments
A-shot
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Silver is beaten down to low levels already
There has been a consolidation period recently indeed
Stocks and riskier assets are at their highest
+ your analogies => Seems veeery attractive indeed.
timwest
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https://www.tradingview.com/x/dCu5XVmK[/image Dual screen version of Silver TODAY versus Gold in the late 1970's to 1987
russ.browne.52
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Armstrong's pi cycle date in early Oct. 2015 is likely going to be when the metals bottom and start their big bullish run with gold heading for $5000.
russ.browne.52
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Sorry repeated myself, forgot i posted this info earlier, and the system does not seem to allow you to delete things.
russ.browne.52
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Martin Armstrong says silver is headed for about 13 ideally by Sept. 2015, Gold should hit about 900 by next sept. before heading for 5000, unless it gets down to 900 too fast then it can go down to the next fib level around 650. If you look at my latest gold chart here you can see the logic... marketvisions.blogspot.ca/
gatorNic
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So are you thinking something like SLV is the play? or what are the other options?
timwest
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Yes. SLV is the purest way to get exposure to Silver in a stock portfolio. The more leveraged ways involve the mining shares, but those have so many additional layers of risk (financial leverage risk, political risk, operational risk) that the best way is often the most boring way. Alternatively, consider buying real silver, in industrial grade bars. It takes more work and the bid-ask spread is wide, but a 50% gain over the next few years is worth holding on for. Thanks for the question.
A-shot
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I actually was wondering about this as well. Thanx for the opinion on the miners. Do you have such a stance only on silver, or gold as well?
There has been a consolidation period recently indeed
Stocks and riskier assets are at their highest
+ your analogies => Seems veeery attractive indeed.