Silver tried to break everyone's conviction this week. It dipped to $79.53 below the pullback zone before reversing and closing at $87.40. That is not a failed breakout. That is a liquidity sweep below $80 followed by a full reclaim. Textbook.
Here is what the weekly chart shows:
$79.53 low swept retail stop-losses below $80, then immediately reversed. Institutions do this deliberately before running price higher.
$87.40 close means silver finished the week above the $85 breakout line. The base breakout is confirmed.
Volume spike this week is the highest in months institutional participation is not in question.
The setup is now active:
Level Price Notes
Entry (now) $85–$88 Above confirmed breakout — momentum entry
Better entry $80–$85 On any pullback after summit
Stop Loss $74.00 Below full base — thesis failure
Target 1 $92.00 +R:R 1.6 from $85 entry
Target 2 $100.00 Psychological + ratio target
Target 3 $103.00 Measured base breakout move
Why $100 is realistic — not a meme number:
The gold-silver ratio is at 55. During full silver bull markets it historically reaches 40–45. With gold at $4,700, a ratio of 45 = silver at $104. The math is not bullish because of the Trump-Xi summit. The math was already bullish. The summit just removed the last macro headwind.
COT confirms: CFTC data shows retail speculators at a multi-year extreme net short in silver — the same position they had before every major silver rally in the past decade. They are about to be forced to cover.
Risk management:
Enter here ($87–88) with 0.5% risk this is above the base, reduced sizing is appropriate
Better entry: $80–82 on any pullback after summit euphoria fades (sell-the-news)
Stop at $74 is non-negotiable — a weekly close there breaks the entire structure
Move stop to breakeven when price reaches $83 (halfway to T1)
The summit ends May 15. If concrete agreements are announced, $88 resistance breaks and this moves fast.
Educational analysis. Not financial advice. Risk management is mandatory.
Here is what the weekly chart shows:
$79.53 low swept retail stop-losses below $80, then immediately reversed. Institutions do this deliberately before running price higher.
$87.40 close means silver finished the week above the $85 breakout line. The base breakout is confirmed.
Volume spike this week is the highest in months institutional participation is not in question.
The setup is now active:
Level Price Notes
Entry (now) $85–$88 Above confirmed breakout — momentum entry
Better entry $80–$85 On any pullback after summit
Stop Loss $74.00 Below full base — thesis failure
Target 1 $92.00 +R:R 1.6 from $85 entry
Target 2 $100.00 Psychological + ratio target
Target 3 $103.00 Measured base breakout move
Why $100 is realistic — not a meme number:
The gold-silver ratio is at 55. During full silver bull markets it historically reaches 40–45. With gold at $4,700, a ratio of 45 = silver at $104. The math is not bullish because of the Trump-Xi summit. The math was already bullish. The summit just removed the last macro headwind.
COT confirms: CFTC data shows retail speculators at a multi-year extreme net short in silver — the same position they had before every major silver rally in the past decade. They are about to be forced to cover.
Risk management:
Enter here ($87–88) with 0.5% risk this is above the base, reduced sizing is appropriate
Better entry: $80–82 on any pullback after summit euphoria fades (sell-the-news)
Stop at $74 is non-negotiable — a weekly close there breaks the entire structure
Move stop to breakeven when price reaches $83 (halfway to T1)
The summit ends May 15. If concrete agreements are announced, $88 resistance breaks and this moves fast.
Educational analysis. Not financial advice. Risk management is mandatory.
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Automate TradingView alerts to brokers no coding needed. Trade futures, forex, or crypto, copy trades across unlimited accounts, & control risk with ease.
For Tradovate: bit.ly/4a1KBrY
For all other supported brokers: bit.ly/4qEbU2G
For Tradovate: bit.ly/4a1KBrY
For all other supported brokers: bit.ly/4qEbU2G
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.