Early in my journey I tended to protect my best tools. Later it dawned on me that my best discoveries happened after I'd been teaching or sharing. Nice to see a profitable trader with a big heart trying to help others. Thanks Chris.
I guess my ultimate questions are: 1) which bar is counted as the half moon bar, the one left to the blue edge, or right? 2) what do you consider as the "direction" of next bar, the color of the bar or it's position relative to its neighbor on the left?
1. To find the answer to your first question just run a Google search for the Full Moon New Moon Calendar and you can figure out how they calculate it, the bar before or after the moon.
Note...If you look at the dates in the last example there was a weekend in between the two bars. In my original study I decided if the Moon was on a Saturday I would use Fridays candle, and if the Moon was on a Sunday I would use Mondays candle. You'll have to do your own analysis to find the current accuracy.
2. There are many variables you have to factor in to create a system.
Trading System: The New Moon consistently is marking the High Or Low of price going in to the next Full Moon.
Trading Action: Trade in the Direction of the price action the day following the New Moon when price goes above or below the the High or Low of the New Moon candle.
Variable 1. Are we entering in intra day as soon as our criteria are met? Or are we entering in on the Close of the Day when price confirms it is CLOSING Above or Below the the New Moons High or Low? Or are we entering in on the Open of the following day our criteria is met? This is important to research b/c these 3 variables can create significant differences.
Example: Let's assume the New Moon is the Green candle too the right of the NM....If we entered in at the open or intraday when price was above the high of the green candle we would be in a losing trade and stopped out when price went below the low of the green candle on the second red candle....because our theory was proven wrong. However, if we waited for the close of the day after the NM price close Lower than the High of the NM candle but not Lower than the Low of the NM candle so we would take no action. The following day Price went below the Low of the NM candle AND closed below, so entering short there we would be in a winning trade.
Example 2. Lets Say the NM candle was the red candle to the left of the moon. No matter what variable we decided on we would be in a losing trade.
Variable 2. Since the setup is so accurate are we willing to take One Stop Out and Reverse Direction.
There are many more minor variables that have to be taken in to account but if you #1 find out which candle the chart is calculating as the NM meaning the candle before or after the plot of the moon...and you look back historically they will become obvious to you.
Also if I was currently trading this system and the pattern had been working for a long time and this marked the first break down of the pattern I would check and see if in the past the cycle switched to price reversing at the Full Moon instead of the New Moon. I know in the past price has reacted more to the Full Moon than the New Moon.
Trading isn't easy...but those that do extensive research can make large consistent returns.
The system was for Silver...the system changes based on the instrument your trading....This is how I would analyze it...but first correct me if I am wrong but the Full Moon was yesterday.
Steps to analyze.
1. Put the Moons Indicator on your chart - Daily chart for analysis.
2. Go into the settings of the indicator and make sure all 4 moons are checked (makes it visually easier to see) but make sure you know what your plots look like for the Full Moon and New Moon.
3. Put a years worth of data on the chart...
4. Look at the chart and see if anything obvious JUMPS out at you...if not move on.....it works better with certain instruments....
5. Looking at a AAPL chart I see consistent Large moves around the FM and NM....
Lets look at FM (Full Moon) first.
End of December, Jan, March, April, June, July all had ballpark of 50 point moves or more. The other months had tradeable movement.
Analyze movement around NM
Large moves on almost all NM's
6. Is there a pattern for movement from FM's to NM's or vice versa? For the most part I would say yes.
7. Breakouts...some times symbols see price consolidate on either FM's, NM's, or Both.
In this situation I see if there is a pattern like 3 days before either of the moons and 3 days after. Then there is typically a strong move when that price consolidation gets taken out to the high side or low side.
I rarely trade stocks but I would say their is consistent movement around the moons so this is tradable. Yo would have to create the rules based on your risk parameters.
A lot of the time I've noticed the best instruments to use aren't the hottest instrument that they constantly talk about on CNBC b/c so many Large Institutions are buying and selling HUGE amounts of the stock.
Check out my silver chart...then put in symbol USDJPY and look at that chart...also look at the US dollar symbol DXY....both of those move great based on the moons but they move differently so both would require two different systems.
Most important two questions to evaluate.
#1 Do either or both of the Moons cause BIG movements in the asset?
#2 Can I design a good system around these moves based on consistent direction Or does the price consolidate around the moons and Break Out, creating consistent HUGE moves?
Click on my name in a day or so...I'm going to post two more charts and discuss the educational aspect of the analysis.
My theory is the US Dollar is lunar, tidal in behaviour, the US is considered a Cancerian country, as is New York, a city. (possibly the US Dollar has a 'base number' of 4 - see DXY long term, Cancer is associated with 4th house, water sign). As on the USDJPY the new moon has good correlation to highs, seemingly the new moon pulls the pair up, and full down. Even in symbology the it is a waveform $, tipped upright.
I will not be posting or sending the TOS code for the Moon Phase Indicator. Chris Moody is the original author of the code and provide the link to it if he wishes. The code is in a forum for paying member of Thinkscripter.com, and I do not want to break any rules. sorry for the inconvenience
First of all thanks for being professional and following the Paid Member Rules. As the author you have my permission to post the code. There are 2 Moon indicators in that forum. The one I wrote is http://www.thinkscripter.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=640&p=9561...It includes 3 separate studies you can plot. Full Moons, New Moons, and Summer/Winter Solstices. I'm slammed right now so I don't have time to support updating the Dates in the Code. It's real simple so when you post the code just explain how to add the dates for the last few years and the future. TOS has added abilities to make the code more visually appealing since I wrote that code. If you want to go the extra mile take a look at how the other Moons indicator in that forum uses those plots. It would be OK to add that code in since it's not proprietary, it just takes advantage of TOS updated plotting capabilities.
If you do the the adjustments for the missing historical dates and add in Future dates of the cycles feel free to ask me any questions if you have any.
I do want to be clear...I'm not supporting questions from other members on this code b/c #1 I don't use it since TradingView provides the updates for free on this site. So anyone can take the code and run with it and post any additional improvements they add. The only Item my original code has that is not available hear yet is plotting the Summer/Winter Solstices.
A Tip from my Trading Journal...If we have been in a long term Bear Market and the market starts to rally and bad news comes out and the market STILL closes Higher that day...that is a sign we aren't just in a minor correction...It's the start of a Bull Market...Opposite if we have been in a Bull Market. Sentiment tells all.
As for the Lunar Cycle validity...as I said on the chart...all anyone has to do is go work in the night club business and observe peoples actions on Full Moons
You can download a ZIP file with Chris 's Moon phase code. There 's three studies , Fullmoon, New moon, and Solstice. As he mentioned, you 'll have to update the dates for ALL the moon phases. There 's a moon calendar for 2013 and 2014 in excel format, and a screenshot showing which code line to change ( very easy). Once you have uploaded the code in thinkorswim, double click on it to add it to the chart. to Change or modify the code, right click on the code , and select "edit source" .
The link is here : https://app.box.com/s/qmfy3q26b1b94a6qor43
I'll post the code here once i'm done
If you want help private message me later.
first step into this Topic could be: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWclNXrQnFM&feature=player_embedded
so their might be different natural influences which effect the markets but with a more complicated cycle/pattern or Event depended - like CME - than lunar cycles.
is there a possibility to see your three Videos?
It seems very interesting but i have a question. What does "Trade in that direction" mean? Are you supposed to take a position into the direction the "Half Moon" Daily candle closed or take a position on the close of the second day. There are arrows/markers which point to both as being plausible
Thanks very much in advance!
I love the work you are doing with Moon phases. Years ago I did some work with Moon elliptical orbit of the Earth. I found that prices moved down as the Moon moves out of Apogee and toward Perigee ( and the reverse is true as well). Phase of the Moon (new or full) seemed to be a trigger for the more. Have you done anything with Moon orbits?
Nice problem to have...I just thought I would introduce the basic concept to people...I like hearing from people that do take it a step further....or deeper per se.
For instance, in India, the Nifty Equity Index (not commodity) starts fresh series after last thursday of the month by around 24-28th dates (it's 3rd friday of week in US). The Index moves up or down. But, 2 weeks later, by around 14-17th dates, the Nifty returns back to Rollover prices. Sorry, I am total newbie in Comex.
What I'm trying to say is...go for the "someone called my name" strategy, it's clearly more profitable because of more trades. At least if you have a lot of friends, family and co-workers who call your name. ;)
Disclaimer: I believe astrology is total hogwash.