JWagnerFXTrader

Silver's Elliott Wave Suggests A Triangle is Unfolding

Long
COMEX:SI1!   Silver Futures
Silver's current Elliott wave pattern appears to be a triangle. Triangle's unfold in 5 waves and silver's triangle is near the end of the 5th wave. Prices may dip to $24.75 where a couple wave relationships exist. Silver does not have to dip and this would not be a tradeable move lower.

Parallel waves in the triangle tend to have 61.8% or 78.6% distance relationships. Wave C = .786 x Wave A. Also, Wave D = .618 x wave B.

Based on the general look of the structure and some geometry within the structure forming, it does appear we may be on the finishing stages of a triangle pattern .

If this triangle is the pattern, then silver may dip to $24.75 though it doesn't have to. This is a bullish chart to new highs

If silver runs up to new highs, this may suggest a weakening dollar which is what we've discussed on some of the forex pairs in the Elliott Wave Weekly Report.

Good luck!
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Comments

Hey! Thanks for this outlook. Why the alternative view like this is not possible? seeking your view here.
Reasons:
a. when you see the long term structure, it can be noticed that March 2020 lows were the end of significant lows for a very large correction that "possibly got over". If So, we are looking at new impulse and in that case, Primary wave 2 will naturally consume more time and can be complex too.

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ABFX6 ABFX6
Long Term view chat :

Reply
Hi @ABFX6, my apologies for the late reply. Sometimes triangles can be tricky...we think they are bullish triangles, but end up being bearish triangles. There is one major problem with the Elliott Wave count that you shared which would eliminate it as a possibility.

The labeling is an (A)-(B)-(C) zigzag with a (B) wave triangle. One of Elliott's rules is that wave B of the zigzag will not surpass the beginning of wave A. Though it is slight, wave A of (B) on the triangle above surpassed the beginning of wave (A) eliminating this as a possibility.

Once the possibility is eliminated, then we need to reset on what other possibilities might exist. In lieu of (A)-(B)-(C) perhaps it is (W)-(X)-(Y) with (X) wave triangle. That is possible but unlikely as wave (Y) would have to be a flat pattern. Possible, but not likely.

If the triangle wave laid out in my original post is going to work out, silver will need to rally very soon while holding above $23.64.
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