Scroll below for My background on silver and three things I learned:
You're looking at a quarterly chart representing silver's price history since 1970.
A) I'm seeing two bullish chart patterns developing: 1) Ascending triangle 2) Cup and handle
B) Significant break of structure: The light blue rectangle highlights how significant $18 - $20 has been in the last decade+. This is why last quarter's breakout was huge.
Local peak in January 2008
Major breakout point in July 2010 before reaching new all time highs
Key resistance for 6 years (2014 - 2020).
Breakout in 2020.
Now here's where the 50 quarter moving average and the 21 quarter moving average are crossing:
It's also the .618 retracement from the March 2020 low to the recent peak in July:
Some background: I have a long history with silver. It was my best trade in 2011, and also my first big winner along with uranium mining stocks in the same period. Winning that trade is what really got me obsessed with markets. I became attached to commodity markets because that's where I saw some success. But I stopped doing well for the next few years (2012 - 2015). Then in November 2015 I started buying Bitcoin. After BTC's big run, whatever confidence I lost in being a trader was restored.
Three things I learned: 1) Becoming attached to any single market gets you emotional and blinds you of other opportunities. 2) Know your time frame of your analysis and respect it. 3) Long time horizon set-ups have the highest probability, but require the most patience.
Here's my analysis on the USD in 2016. If weakness in the dollar is about halfway into its cycle, the final half may be the catalyst:
And here's my last long term analysis on silver in March 2018:
- Thanks for reading
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Precious metals are seasonally very strong in Dec - Jan. We could very well see prices extend from here.
I am long SLV calls
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Broken above 26, any retest of the lower 26 handle should be bought or an add spot:
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Looking good on the hourly. Rounding up.. Needs a close above 27 to go. I remain long SLV calls:
Very good work. Anyone who buys and owns silver also knows that it's been heavily suppressed, and that handle really needs to blow right off the cup as the real price is not even int the same galaxy.
Lanmar
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@dicky_retardo, thanks, 100%. A lot of energy being built up
I know there are a lot off chartist who are negative about Silver & Gold
But they are do not understand the quantity of excess money float
Which will be demonstrated by increase in inflation
When inflation goes up so will Golf and Silver
Lanmar
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@jdouglas020, exactly. They've proven to be great assets for that purpose
ReallyMe
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Objectively speaking, Silver had passed its peak at the beginning of August and tends to decline further.
The development of the Gold/Silver ratio additionally confirms this.
So much for the mid-term perspective. Wishful thinking and long-running dreams are always possible, of course
Lanmar
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@ReallyMe, you're missing the point on time-frame. Your first chart is pointed in the direction of my buy-zone, so no disagreement there. And your second chart assumes the ratio will strengthen into December - again, no disagreement there as I think short term we could see that. My chart is not projecting 3 months ahead but several years ahead.
ReallyMe
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@Lanmar, I appreciate this. In my scheme of things, I've always thought that the further a prediction lies in the future, the more uncertain it is. I've never planned for decades in advance as I think the probability of that being true in the end is almost zero. Let's wait a few months until the probable development will become more apparent. It is like looking through the fog. One can't see for miles already. I always do it step by step. YMMV
Lanmar
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@ReallyMe, I don't want to call this a prediciton per se. Just two major possible patterns in the making as far as I can tell. They are subject to fail like all patterns. But in my experience and the experience of many other traders I've spoken to with decades on their belt, longer term patterns tend to be a lot more reliable. There's no doubt trading through them are more challenging. They test our patience the most. To your last point, step by step is exactly how you should trade (unless you're an "investor"). I however like having the bigger picture in mind so I could trade with the higher probability trend, but always step by step for me.