The 4 charts seen in this post are all from different time periods, all the same pattern, and all have the same result (except present day). Ladies and Gents 3.01% - I present the Orthodox Broadening Top (Parabolic Edition). This is a simple pattern - high, low, higher high, lower low, higher high, crash. The 1st chart (top left) is the Dow leading up to the massive crash in 1929 and the Great Depression. I'd like to point out that 1905-1920 was a sideways secular bear market before the run up (more on that in a few). I have noted years on the chart (all of them that aren't present day) where the chart seems to correlate with today's. The 2nd chart on the top right is Silver -0.20% . After that last spike, from high to low, it seen a crash slightly above 72% occur. The 3rd chart (bottom right) is the Dow back in 1959-1966. This was leading into a 16 year sideways secular bear market (like the one from 1905-1920) that was from 1966-1982. The bottom left is the final chart, which is present day. I wanted to point out that a secular bear market predated the crash in '29, and we had a secular bear market most recently (66-82) and haven't had one since. Could a crash be around the corner? If history tells us anything - that or a secular bear market seem to be coming sooner than later.
If you look at the bigger picture, WS is nearing the top of the bubble cycle. The question now is, will they let the bubble outright pop and buy the bottom or bleed out over the years. The underlying educational bubble is looming over the American economy, but unlike housing, it is a human capital bubble. It takes much longer to develop. I think the general guess is that multinational corps will slowly move out of the USA and into other countries. These multinationals have already cemented their bases in developing countries. Once the newer generations of better trained professionals from other countries get salaries comparable to those of EU and USA they will have no reason to remain in the New World.
J-Streak
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@hirounsung, this peak marks the end of a generational secular cycle and a nine decade long cycle as well. I think the central banks have created a bubble, but when looking to the future you have to ask - how big of a role is AI going to have?
UnknownUnicorn1038536
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@edub91026, I'm not an AI specialist, but I'm somewhat familiar with the field. I think people both over- and underestimate the reach of AI. AI has actually played a big role over the last years. In it's most basic sense, banks use AI to automate checks. Google, Facebook, Twitter use AI for searching and checking. Airplanes are piloted with AI controllers. It is also a dark magic, but financial institutions seem to strongly rely on AI and ML for market predictions. As far as I know there are people who think AI will end up destroying humankind by something like this: npr.org/2017/09/15/547886482/sam-harris-what-happens-when-humans-develop-super-intelligent-ai or make life overall better by relieving workers from physical work, increasing productivity.
Personally I think AI will be harnessed by a handful of men, further increasing the inequality gap. Unbeatable corps. In the meantime, the market will probably crash. If superintelligent AI comes up, the market might be the least of our worries.