TradingView
kroo_sol
May 13, 2022 9:36 AM

Silver: End of Correction soon - then boom?  

TVC:SILVER1W
SILVER (US$/OZ)TVC

Description

⋅
A high-time-frame analysis of Silver.

Observations

  • drawn out correction since impulsive wave 1 in summer 2020 which unfolds in an ABC-manner
  • corrective patterns flat and running flat had already been invalidated by the higher high of the b wave
  • we are currently in wave 3 of wave 5 of the c leg


Thesis

  • together with a rebounding equities market Silver will push upwards a little bit to the 22 USD region. completing wave 4 of 5 of C
  • then a sharp drop will follow that either stops below 20 USD or at the golden pocket at the 17 USD area
  • this could be followed by an impulsive upmove which would be wave 3 and could carry us to 35 USD which aligns nicely with resistance area


Supporting facts for thesis


  • Seasonality: May is a weak month for silver; June a strong one
  • slight overhang of longs in the COT report; they might get flushed first



This thesis is invalidated if we break 17 USD!

+++

My count is somewhat high-time frame but check out
. It aligns with my idea well.



Comment

⋅
Silver has reached a pivotal area and just printed a 4h-reversal candle (hammer). If price nukes from here, wave 5 of y has started.

Comment

⋅
Silver is hovering above the Golden Zone. The recent run up looks like a C up of wave 4. I expect Silver to reach the Zone eventually.
FibonacciSeasonalityElliott Wave
Comments
CrashBandicoot99
⋅
Interesting….a sharp 100% move from 17 area. All within this year???
kroo_sol
⋅
@RocketFuel20 I don't know if we reach the target in this year but if this scenario plays out, the sell off to 17 will be quick and sharp and the turnaround as well. Similar to Covid-Crash
CrashBandicoot99
⋅
@kroo_sol, could have already bottomed this week….the greed and fear index got down to 2. I believe that was lower than covid crash.
kroo_sol
⋅
@RocketFuel20 Possible as well. But that it broke this massive support at 21.13 leaves me cautious. And there are probably alot of stops below 20.

The thing that would convince me that this scenario is wrong would be a massive move up past 22.33
CrashBandicoot99
⋅
@kroo_sol, wether it launches from 17 or 20 doesn’t matter much in the long run assuming it eventually breaks 50 in the coming years. We will see….feels like it is close to a long term bottom and trend shift. I am surprised it didn’t fall further once it broke support. Hence, not sure how many sellers/stops are left. My reasoning/guess why the bottom might be in.
More