Silver (XAGUSD)
Short
Updated

30% Silver correction to support - January 2026

7 265
The Silver bugs are chattering more than usual. For months they say nothing, until that one moment they like grasshoppers on a summer's evening, all sing with cheer as if looking for a new mate.

Exactly, and somewhat ironically, they refuse to take profits as price action reaches new all time highs. The allure of that oncoming headlight, the shine is too pretty... until their little brain meets the windshield. Giving up not enough grey matter to cover a small water biscuit.

On the above daily chart price action prints bearish divergence following the RSI support breakdown.

The first support area is the breakout from the previous resistance shown in the idea below, around the late 40's to 50 mark.

Expect a circa 30% after this impressive short squeeze.

Ww

Silver at critical resistance,  is a great collapse next?




Trade active
Active on publication.
Note
Oof, down 5% already. Metals trading like a meme stock.
Note
The bearish divergence is confirmed. $65 is the first support area to consider for a bounce. The 50sma is a reliable line of support, which is forecast to be around $65 by the end of the month.

Bulls make money.
Bears make money.
Pigs get slaughtered.

Still a lot of bulls in the comments area.


Daily chart
snapshot
Note

Price action is now 3 standard deviations from the mean. Historically such confirmations were met with a 30-80% correction to the mean. At this time the mean is a -60% correction away to $30

3 standard deviations!

As with more or less all users of the Bollinger Band, the default setting is to use the band with 2 stand deviations. For the 2nd time in history price action has printed a 2 month candle outside the Bollinger Band. Yeah, I know, this time is different…

3 standard deviations on the 2 month chart

snapshot


2 standard deviations on a 2 month chart

snapshot
Note
Up another 20% since publication, up 700% since 2020. Healthy organic price action growth, nothing to see here.

Price action around 103, and around 85 on publication. It is important to remember 20% extra after a 700% run is a rounding error. Noise. At 3 standard deviations from the mean price action is bubble like, look left.

Bulls make money.
Bears make money.
Pigs get slaughtered.

snapshot
Note
One minute you're at 120 the next 90... someone somewhere bought at 120 yesterday as the FOMO tightened its grip.



snapshot
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33% crash in hours!

Will be at forecast in the next five minutes at this rate.


snapshot
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On the black piste to the $30 Hütte for Après-ski.

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Ready for $60 ??

Dead cat bounce as buyers get drunk on the hopium.

snapshot
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-12% in one session, remind me which meme coin this is ;-)
Note
5 week candle, perfect. Prints on Monday coming. This one candle has the power to send price action back down to the $20-30 area.

5 week
snapshot

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