Silver is in the midst of a bear market rally, up 8% in the last two weeks and 13% since the end-of-August lows.
Although silver prices are still 23% below the peak reached in March, recent price movements suggest that silver is attempting to make a trend reversal at these levels.
Slowing market pricing for Fed interest rates next year has prompted the rally in silver prices over the past weeks. Investors reduced their forecasts for interest rates in the second half of 2023, and in the last week they priced in a first drop of 25 basis points after Fed funds are expected to reach a high of 4.9% in the first quarter of 2023.
An asset like silver that is extremely vulnerable to US interest rates has been granted some breathing room by both the decrease in Treasury yields – the US 10y yield has dropped by 30 basis points in the past week – and the weakening of the US dollar – with the DXY index falling below 110. Silver has been strongly and inversely correlated with the US dollar performance throughout the year.
The Federal Reserve meeting next week poses a concern because it could reignite hawkish arguments about the need to curb inflationary increases, which might halt the silver's rally. However, understanding how likely the Fed views a recession in 2023 will be critical, given the market builds many of its expectations for the conclusion of the hiking cycle next year on this matter.
A new attempt to break the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (2022 max-min range) can be seen on the daily silver technical chart. Sellers fought back hard at this level in September, pushing prices below the $19.7–20 zone. This level was breached in early October, causing prices to rise to $21.1-21.2 (38.2% Fibonacci).
Momentum indicators indicate that bullishness is gaining traction. The 14-day RSI surpassed 50 days once more, and the MACD indicates a bullish crossover close to the zero line.
If silver is successful in breaking over $19.8, a new overshoot toward $21.1 or $21.6 (200-day moving average) is possible. At that point, sellers might resume offering fierce pushback. Next Wednesday, a very hawkish Federal Reserve could return to exert downward pressure, leading to a retest of the 18.2 support level.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com