Silver/Yuan insights

TVC:SILVER   CFDs on Silver (US$ / OZ)
I am pretty use to getting most of my charts denominated against USD but I know that the market for precious metals is international and silver has a greater commodity use than other precious metals and one of its main uses is in manufacturing so I went to poking about the various denominations and the Chinese yuan looks like it might have the most predictive power.

The RSI for XAGCNY called a more technical top on the monthly chart with a damn near perfect rejectoin at 69.95, 1/20th of a percent shy of overbought conditions. Both RSIs seem to have a trend line providing resistance, that will be interesting to watch

The XAGCNY chart has a potential ascending triangle developing. This triangle behooves more patience in silver than some of my other charts, at least in terms of CNY . Below is an interesting chart, where this head and shoulders formation, which is kinda in the wrong position, forecast doom for the yuan against the dollar.
the 100 M EMA is clearly acting as resistance on XAGCNY and, in combination with the RSI and charting, really helps define this local high

In regards to silver/usd we can see that the chart formation is still preliminary compared to the silver/yuan chart. A moving average system suggest we will be leaving ths triangle early. The divergence on the RSI for the USD chart isn't as severe as the yuan chart. I think we might find a circumstance where the Chinese drive the pumping and selling of silver while the US and other demominations provide support. Depending on how the 100 EMA acts for XAGUSD will determine a lot going forward.

My look at the Effective Federal Funds Rates shows a very possible dip to negative interest rates so precious metals should be making a run due to the hedge against inflation . Silver should be moving quicker than gold due to the rising wedge that everyone and deh momma should have seen if they follow the gold/silver ratio . Perhaps coincidentally the falling wedge target gets us to the current lower limit of the 3 st . dev Bollinger band . Neat.

From here on out I am going to be using XAGCNY and the Gold/Silver ratio to help time my silver/usd trades. Traditional disclaimers apply about me not being a financial advisory or a CMT .
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