Lanmar

How to make $1,000,000 next month! JK.. Let's talk about snacks

Long
NYSE:SJM   J.M. Smucker Company (The) New
I've been a very big fan of companies that own packaged food brands (snacks) the American people love. Especially brands that are being stocked in large quantities in times of distress, like a pandemic. Not only is playing good defense very attractive right now from a technical standpoint, it also makes a lot of sense logically when you think about risk. There is a flight to quality happening in the institutional world. Capital has to flow somewhere. Funds cannot just sit in cash, nor could they go all in on bonds, gold or tech stocks (which happen to be the safe haven at the moment). They need something (a company) that could reliably forecast its earnings power in the next x months or years. Companies that will continue ringing the register with no surprises, minimal uncertainty, no matter how bad a viral pandemic could get.

Now here is where things get interesting. Times of crisis *usually* represent bottoms in markets. Are we at that point in history now? I think we are, at least in time - maybe 2020, maybe 2021. 10 or 20 years from now you won't know the difference. So we could use the analysis above as an indicator for the broader economy, or let your capital flow into defensive stocks and sleep well at night. A combination of both works too.

Now I think the S&P is at a level where it's about to roll over (currently at 2950, I think we're about 80 points max from an intermediate top - see my April 24th publication on the S&P 500 ). So Smucker's could see some downside before breaking out. The range of interest is between 101 - 116. It's a buy anywhere inside of there. I know everyone on TradingView is a day trader and wants to make millions overnight. So I'm sorry that this is a 5-10 year horizon trade. Call options are another way to make a big return on Smucker's.. ;). Just throwing ideas.

Thanks for reading. Adios

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