Analysis First would be the long term structure. We see two lower highs which creates our resistance and a very good place for us to expect this uptrend to end/consolidate. I really don't see why we would expect a break out at this time and set a higher high. Since the target is in 2021ish I'll worry about that later.
Second is the shorter term wedge the price action is currently in. Very promising we didn't hit support the third time given what we see in the indicators. Both the MACD and RSI are showing hidden bullish divergence, (my favorite kind). I think we have a strong case for swing traders that we will break out the wedge. I feel given how poorly the price has done we would expect a retest of the wedge as support.
We are way below the volume profile lower value area which makes the very literal technical case that SLCA is undervalued. Since price action has a habit of dancing around the value areas I would expect we go to the lower value area, consolidate, move the point of control, consolidate, and ultimately move to the upper value area. Should the price action actually mount the upper value area and the long term trend line then we can look at going damn near vertical, but that will be a few years away.
The chart below shows that the Average True range is at 1.46, which is the lowest it has been, ever. I don't see many people use the ATR here but it is used to identify extreme lows in the market in general as well as lows in volatility as well. It is almost like a bollinger band without the noise for measuring volatility. A riskier way to use ATR as a leading indicator to call a top, which isn't what we are doing here. Using the bollinger bands we see that we are against the weekly BB with all the bullish divergence mentioned above, with the ATR at a all time low. We also see the OBV has found a floor and is chopping sideways. Very likely the OBV and 10-20 EMAs will continue generally upward till they break through and find support on the 100 EMA, and after that a powerful move to the upside.
Disclaimer You are not suppose to be emotionally attached to stocks that you trade, and in the interest of full disclosure SLCA is one of those for me with my main disappointment that didn't let this winner run enough when I was less experienced. Right now I wish my entry were better, I was in a little higher up but I have been holding this dip. Not financial advice and I am not a financial adviser or certified market technician.
I like your analysis a lot. Curious - why would TradingView have a technical sell signal on this stock?
This_Guhy
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@FirstDavid, The tradingview technicals are dummy. They cannot look for divergences, cannot tell when price action is getting tight, will never see when the price action is outside the bollinger band and likely to snap back and will never see a chart pattern like a falling wedge.
Now, since they are simple you can never be tricked by them, our oursmart them. You can remove a lot of emotion with the buy or sell signal. Less gains and less losses.
Look at the chart below. I see previous resistance becoming support at $5.5 and we are at the base of the BB, a great place to get some upside. Nothing is guaranteed but this does look like a great place to set an entry and some stops if you want to long SLCA. The TV technicals can never tell you that. The Pivots do a pretty fair job of telling you where you could take profit or buy the dip though, can't deny that.
FerroIgnique
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People can me certified market technicians?
This_Guhy
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@FerroIgnique, Yes, when I finally become secure enough I am going to become a CMT and maybe door knock up a crypto hedge fund.
FerroIgnique
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@This_Guhy, why not be a financial advisor and pay yourself to manage all the money you hauled off crypto?