If the will unfold,at the beginning of 2014 is $SLV .
However, the macro trend is kind of and it is possible that $SLV will aim in future for a major swing lower low.
I might see different tomorrow- but today is this picture of SLV .
Your major lower in the future is what brings my attention. From a technical point a view SLV has been dropping 15$ dollars from highs since major 2011 high, And Every bottom has been followed of a 6-8-10$ bounce. the last 23.85 high we made was a 6 $ ish bounce from 17 lows. My point is if prices don't go higher than this last high ans breaks LL we have a combination of swings + other technical factors making 8.45 dollars mark on SLV (23-15) the potential next level. When in doubt i take in account other analysis techniques of mine, those ones are suggesting two basic thing : 1- as long as yellow trendline is not broken, next support could be 8 dollars, -and if it's broken we could get a bull cycle, 2-prices will first test BB median (could be around ma34-50 for gold) because it's level of least resistance and oversold levels need to be worked out for now...
So either prices will react strong bull and push up to 8-10$ and + bounce, breaking yellow trend line and make bull cycle (scenario #1 on chart), or prices will just make dead cat bounce, some test failure or maybe dble top and go down to 8$ (scenario #2) IMO, worst case it ranges between 17 and 23 before picks a side because confirmation of new bull cycle or 8$ price tag is in play.
Personally, Although i am ready for both cases, i firmly believe prices will have huge move up soon, metals has gotten back a clear negative correlation with markets since end 2012 / early 2013 and my bear cycle is complete form what i see...i found SLV much more reliable than GLD and GDX when it comes to timing the metals market.