SLV attempted to break above the macro downtrend line (blue) and fill the gap- unfortunately with no luck this time. Whether or not is going to form the ABCD bullish pattern ( the leg D @15 in December 2013, if AB=CD in time) or only re-testing the last swing low and reverses, the micro pattern looks bullish. If the reversal takes place next week or so, than a swing high of around 28 level could take place.
If the ABCD pattern will unfold,at the beginning of 2014 is SLV bullish. However, the macro trend is kind of bearish and it is possible that SLV will aim in future for a major swing lower low. I might see different tomorrow- but today is this picture of SLV.
Comments
sublimares2
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Updating the chart: I have detected weak bullish divergence and also a pattern that suggests a short term bullish move- correction. However, the chart remains bearish- actually strong bearish for now.
BEI
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Interesting and very plausible
Your major lower in the future is what brings my attention. From a technical point a view SLV has been dropping 15$ dollars from highs since major 2011 high, And Every bottom has been followed of a 6-8-10$ bounce. the last 23.85 high we made was a 6 $ ish bounce from 17 lows. My point is if prices don't go higher than this last high ans breaks LL we have a combination of swings + other technical factors making 8.45 dollars mark on SLV (23-15) the potential next level. When in doubt i take in account other analysis techniques of mine, those ones are suggesting two basic thing : 1- as long as yellow trendline is not broken, next support could be 8 dollars, -and if it's broken we could get a bull cycle, 2-prices will first test BB median (could be around ma34-50 for gold) because it's level of least resistance and oversold levels need to be worked out for now...
So either prices will react strong bull and push up to 8-10$ and + bounce, breaking yellow trend line and make bull cycle (scenario #1 on chart), or prices will just make dead cat bounce, some test failure or maybe dble top and go down to 8$ (scenario #2) IMO, worst case it ranges between 17 and 23 before picks a side because confirmation of new bull cycle or 8$ price tag is in play.
Personally, Although i am ready for both cases, i firmly believe prices will have huge move up soon, metals has gotten back a clear negative correlation with markets since end 2012 / early 2013 and my bear cycle is complete form what i see...i found SLV much more reliable than GLD and GDX when it comes to timing the metals market.
RogerRRR
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simplicity is a virtue. makes money too
BEI
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Hi TheInsurgency,
Prices swings and Fibo analysis is as simple as it gets
Proxy
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Understanding complexity isn't?
RogerRRR
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understanding complexity is absolutely a virtue. Doesn't always make money though.
sublimares2
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TradingView is a great place- the best (my opinion) so far for chartists and sharing ideas. There are fantastic charts for each and everyone of us levels of comprehension..Some charts would appeal to some - remember the saying "great minds think alike"? Simplicity can be complicated and is more questionable when the message comes from a person who is not sharing charts in this community. It says something about the virtues:). However, if the drawing was not clear to you, here is the main message: do not get too comfy when the price is bullish.:)