Been quite some time, my workload is year round, however it's quite seasonal. I'm finally coming off and find myself with some time to do some charting.
Silver is one of my long term holds, it's at historical imbalances with gold, and once again, expected to out perform gold in 2019, take that with a grain of salt because as we all know, metals aren't the cool investment on the block these past years.
Let's dive in.
Bullish Key Points:
1) Silver is currently sitting underneath the 21 Weekly EMA, the first test will be to clear this hurdle and start trading between the 21 and 50 EMA. 2) The 21 and 50 EMA have crossed on the daily chart, last time this has happened was June 8th and silver rallied almost 6%. 3) If silver can break the 21 weekly EMA, then it has another immediate test @ 14.00. Beyond this, we have the local downtrend channel dating back to August 2016 @ 14.50. 4) Silver currently has the most upside of all the metals, and with the current market economy, could potentially realize significant gains in the next couple of months.
Bearish Key Points:
1) Let's be honest, this is a highly manipulated market. If the powers that be deem it's not going anywhere, well it just won't. 2) Weekly EMA test. Silver has not traded above the 21 EMA since June, if it can't find steam in the current market conditions, I'm not sure what else it will take to get it moving. 3) It has major tests ahead. In addition to the weekly EMA we also have two major tests within 6% of the current price.
Positions:
1) I currently hold spot silver ETF, as well as multiple future long calls.
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Comment
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Today we had a bullish break to the upside w/ RSI divergence.
Over the following days we want to see $14.00 defended, and the local $14.34 resistance taken out, finally going for the local downtrend since August 16' at 14.62
Trade closed: target reached
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I've closed my 1/18 options for a 200% profit, expect a retrace in the coming days.
Where do you buy your long calls? How do you buy futures for silver? an etf?
ant187
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@crayola11, You can get a broker or you can use Robinhood to start easily, just be aware you can't do sell puts there as you need 25k minimum. But if your interested in buy calls and buy puts it works fine, although customer service is lacking.
crayola11
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@ant187, \Thanks I have Robinhood but only used it to buy FANG stocks lol
Is ther a simple ETF I could buy that would be long silver
ant187
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@crayola11, You can buy spot SLV and hold if your trying to go long, or theres multiple's I'm sure, however holding leveraged etf's leades to beta slippage and not recommended. Better to do options for leverage.
crayola11
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Any thoughts on why CHASE is buying so much silver? Also russia China India etc? Is silver at all time lows? How likely will it go lower?
The ratio is 85:1 silver to gold its crazy high
I feel like silver is way undervalued
ant187
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@crayola11, Yes, the ratio is at historical imbalances.
In regards to chase, they got caught on the last run without physical silver to cover their inherited short positions from the Bear Stearns 2008 acquisition. So it's a combination of them buying up enough to cover their shorts, and most likely accumulation.
In terms of how low can it go, I see people claim 8.50 quite a bit, but I believe we will have a bullrun in 2019.