EmptyEternity

Silver is in short term consolidation before breaking $30

Long
BATS:SLV   iShares Silver Trust
It doesn't matter what short term paper contracts do, or taking profits - the East is importing gold and silver at a beguiling rate that won't allow for much shenanigans for the metals market. I was however surprised to see the price bounce exactly off the top of the box.

I see silver going down to $24 area, shake out some hands, and rocket up past $30 after options expiration date. I see a smaller consolidation week in May before going even higher.

I HIGHLY recommend Silver Miners right now. They saw some life this week and last - and since they usually lag, I can see them being down for the next two weeks before going up themselves. I like SIL , SILJ , and NUGT for indices, and NEM for the best miner in the world for one simple reason - AMERICA will be the LAST country to nationalize their natural resources in a communistic reaction to the skyrocketing dollar. I expect that to happen starting next year.
Comment:
You can see silver broke a short term trend line for consolidation:
Comment:

Almost there...
Comment:
Will this begin the push down?
Comment:

TTM Squeeze building, two trend lines and the 200 is much lower, looking back there's always a return to the mean. Also look at that selling pressure, I still see a wobble before taking off.
Comment:
www.zerohedge.com/ma...llen-fx-intervention

Will Korea and Japan's Plaza Accord spur a Chinese devaluation? Yes if they actually do it. It won't work for long as the dollar will come roaring back as everyone defaults from hyperinflation. Ultimately I see 250 for the Yen, the Yuan will be 8-10 by the end of the year. This means that the dollar will lose ground before skyrocketing - which'll boost metals and miners to ATH's. But when the dollar comes back because of some deflationary catalyst and dollar shortage, risk assets will lose value cause no one will have enough dollars.
Comment:
Comment:
Alright! Now we'll wait for this to bottom before going long - I will share some multibagger options play when that happens. And as always this is NOT financial advice.

Comment:
twitter.com/hajiyev_.../1783106622211912109
This guy is calling it, falling wedge before lift-off!
Comment:
This guy is saying the same using cycles

twitter.com/sich8/st.../1782890442385764729
Comment:
Target hit!

Comment:
twitter.com/CyclesFa.../1784158812061983039

Cycles show lower is coming for silver
Comment:
twitter.com/GoldPred.../1785243659157590203

Huge down thrust and then skyrocket to $50
Comment:

About to take a huge dump after retracing up to the 200ema!
Comment:
MACD shows this show is just getting started and RSI is falling

Comment:
twitter.com/DonDurre.../1785570431753466019

$25 is support, when we hit it, I'll give some options plays that should return 1,000%

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
Comment:
I think we'll get a hawkish FED, either saying there won't be any rate cuts, and/or possibly a rate hike if inflation gets ahead of itself. This will push metals down before some inflationary event spooks metals higher. Could be a huge attack on Iran and Israel, or the BOJ which I think is gonna sell treasuries to raise dollars to defend their Yen. I personally thought their line in the sand was much higher than where the Yen has fallen. The inverse of then Yen tracks the 10 year so if the Yen goes lower, the 10yr will go higher - which is deflationary for the US, and bad for metals. If the Yen goes up, the 10 year goes down, metals go up due to inflation going up.
I also noticed COMEX silver is getting drained, and only has enough silver for 3 more months (this fluctuates), with China and India importing tonnes. This is the year silver's price-fixing gets broken...
Comment:
MACD isn't done falling yet and no crossover for a trend change yet...
Comment:
You know you want to drop more...
Comment:

TTM squeeze initiated on the 1hr TF - already bounced off the opposite band (fakeout) and is proceeding down.
Comment:
twitter.com/SilverSu.../1786539238399566034

Silver will fall outside the bullish falling wedge before take off. The downturn to take it below the wedge could be caused by the next Pandemic h5n1 (see my GILD thread) before lift-off.
Comment:
Be sure to hedge right here, there's a decent chance we don't make it past $30 for this go around until July...
Comment:
x.com/scalper432/sta.../1791150785516220761

Huge Sell orders at $32...
Comment:
DXY will march higher to 108 using cycles
x.com/ColinSt3048139.../1791387038622925120
Comment:
DXY will march higher to 108 using EW

x.com/TTCSteve/statu...468175294794/photo/1
Comment:
DXY will march higher after bouncing off the trendline

x.com/GlobalProTrade.../1791472391534657834
Comment:
ibb.co/nLh4KVK
ibb.co/kxJXB8R

Dark pools show selling across the board, metals are on summer vacation. Check out my DUST and JDST calls to take advantage of some gains in the meantime (not financial advice)
Comment:
I think there's much more room to go down from here - I'm seeing dark pool selling in all the major miner indices ( NUGT , JNUG , GDX , GDXJ ) and dark pool buying in DUST and $JDST. Check out my newest threads for the pictures of the charts in the comments...
Comment:
www.goldpriceforecas...t-medium-term-signal

Great synopsis on the coming two weeks for pm's (it's not good)
Comment:
I like to use RSI 21 to get tops. I see a retracement for Gold until getting nuked into orbit following the FED emergency cutting rates due to some exogenous event.
Comment:

Bearish MACD crossover has happened 3x since 2011 and has cratered everytime since!

x.com/InvestingAngle.../1798203165361442927

Silver will follow lower
Comment:
Comment:
If the dollar can defeat 105.50, then this is the way charted so far for silver. We could have a way larger bounce upward after this consolidation is over - and I see silver ranging from $50-$120 an ounce. That would be a reckoning for the dollar before the FED commits to its last stand that may take silver from $50 to $200 an ounce ultimately.
Comment:
My alternative if inflation gets REALLY outa control
Comment:

Proposed events going forward:
1. COMEX will increase margin SIGNIFICANTLY
2. ETF's will show that they don't have the supply and will shutdown
3. Countries start to nationalize mines and miners - the last being America. At that point I would choose Wheaton Precious Metals WPM and Newmont Mining $NEM. Since you do not actually own your own shares, your clearinghouse does you may have to file away for the stock itself which has a fee. I think we'll have a grid down scenario that transitions us to DIGITALID which will wipe or paralyze markets for awhile.
Better divide your portfolio allocated for silver as follows depending on whether you feel there will be a grid down scenario:
1. 50% physical + 0% mining options + 50% stock if you're conservative.
2. 50% physical + 25% mining options + 25% stock if you're moderate.
3. 25% physical + 50% mining options + 25% stock if you're aggressive.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Comment:

(Projecting Pathways)
Comment:
But I thought China was buying silver??? Don't believe all the narratives...

x.com/TFMetals/statu.../1801061791218168124
Comment:
Weird how reality runs on fractals, that history rhymes. Here's the silver miners playing out - which I think is correlated to market flushes.

Here's the movements:
After the top it took 6 weeks to reach a bottom - we're in week 4 (almost 20% loss).
One week up retracement (8% gain) - which'll coincide with the FOMC minutes (I bet they are hawkish to warrant FED doing an about face and cutting in July).
One week huge down candle (30% loss).
One (half) week up retracement (20% gain).
One week (and the previous half) another huge down candle (40% loss).
Last week goes up beginning the week and then down further (40% loss) and bottoms midweek before catapulting - which coincides with the July FOMC rate decision (30% gain).

I'm hoping IV is cheap enough to buy some puts and calls - not sure how much volatility will raise the price towards the bottom so it might be wise to buy some longer dated calls in and then scale in as time goes on and variances work themselves out.

I'm looking to buy in 2 weeks.

I anticipate the market to capsize after the FOMC minutes are released. Buy puts before that (Wednesday July 3rd before a holiday and the fireworks happen - in the market...), then if IV is low, buy calls on EVERYTHING CAUSE IT'S GONNA MOON!!

Newmont doubled within 2 months after rates were cut so I'm gonna buy calls on that miner which is the safest in the world. I anticipate price to be about $20 when this happens. There's a chance Newmont could go up 400% within 1 year.

If IV hasn't gone up too much, I'll rotate into the junior miner Endeavor Silver EXK which also went up 400% in 6 months and 800% in 1 year back in 2020. I will be loading calls on this one as well, hopefully getting in at $1.
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.