It doesn't matter what short term paper contracts do, or taking profits - the East is importing gold and silver at a beguiling rate that won't allow for much shenanigans for the metals market. I was however surprised to see the price bounce exactly off the top of the box.
I see silver going down to $24 area, shake out some hands, and rocket up past $30 after options expiration date. I see a smaller consolidation week in May before going even higher.
I HIGHLY recommend Silver Miners right now. They saw some life this week and last - and since they usually lag, I can see them being down for the next two weeks before going up themselves. I like AMEX:SIL, AMEX:SILJ, and NUGT for indices, and NYSE:NEM for the best miner in the world for one simple reason - AMERICA will be the LAST country to nationalize their natural resources in a communistic reaction to the skyrocketing dollar. I expect that to happen starting next year.
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You can see silver broke a short term trend line for consolidation:
TTM Squeeze building, two trend lines and the 200 is much lower, looking back there's always a return to the mean. Also look at that selling pressure, I still see a wobble before taking off.
Will Korea and Japan's Plaza Accord spur a Chinese devaluation? Yes if they actually do it. It won't work for long as the dollar will come roaring back as everyone defaults from hyperinflation. Ultimately I see 250 for the Yen, the Yuan will be 8-10 by the end of the year. This means that the dollar will lose ground before skyrocketing - which'll boost metals and miners to ATH's. But when the dollar comes back because of some deflationary catalyst and dollar shortage, risk assets will lose value cause no one will have enough dollars.
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Alright! Now we'll wait for this to bottom before going long - I will share some multibagger options play when that happens. And as always this is NOT financial advice.
$25 is support, when we hit it, I'll give some options plays that should return 1,000%
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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I think we'll get a hawkish FED, either saying there won't be any rate cuts, and/or possibly a rate hike if inflation gets ahead of itself. This will push metals down before some inflationary event spooks metals higher. Could be a huge attack on Iran and Israel, or the BOJ which I think is gonna sell treasuries to raise dollars to defend their Yen. I personally thought their line in the sand was much higher than where the Yen has fallen. The inverse of then Yen tracks the 10 year so if the Yen goes lower, the 10yr will go higher - which is deflationary for the US, and bad for metals. If the Yen goes up, the 10 year goes down, metals go up due to inflation going up. I also noticed COMEX silver is getting drained, and only has enough silver for 3 more months (this fluctuates), with China and India importing tonnes. This is the year silver's price-fixing gets broken...
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MACD isn't done falling yet and no crossover for a trend change yet...
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You know you want to drop more...
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TTM squeeze initiated on the 1hr TF - already bounced off the opposite band (fakeout) and is proceeding down.
Silver will fall outside the bullish falling wedge before take off. The downturn to take it below the wedge could be caused by the next Pandemic h5n1 (see my NASDAQ:GILD thread) before lift-off.
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Be sure to hedge right here, there's a decent chance we don't make it past $30 for this go around until July...