Over the course of the next week - I think you can see the emergence of a 20%-30% rally in silver in the first half of this year.
Whether we see another decline to wipe out all bullish sentiment and provide a fertile ground for a much bigger rally or whether prices maintain these 1-month new highs and then gradually work their way higher and then accelerate as the quarter unfolds, either is a good option from my perspective.
With year-end out of the way, any shorts who piled-on to the down trade in silver are now ready to focus elsewhere since the last drop failed to take out the July low.
Keep risk low by averaging in over the next week and only add the last position if prices are breaking out of the 5-day range.
Tim
thanks @jr for posting your chart in chat so I could crystalize my thinking on this trade.
5:03PM EST, Monday, Jan 13, 2014
Comments
QuantitativeExhaustion
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It's about 1-3 days away from a launch
timwest
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Thanks JR for keeping me up on your thoughts.
timwest
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Is there some news that you are aware of that is coming up?
QuantitativeExhaustion
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One last low Tim. Truncated 5th wave failure is the play for Elliotticians. Many EW counters still hoping for 5th wave to play-out deeper than 3rd wave, and even extend with a 14 price handle. I'd say that is not likely given that money has already rotated from equities-bonds--- next -->metals/commodities?.
QuantitativeExhaustion
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Getting Close. Looks like numbers coming out of China on Friday is our trigger event.