For a few weeks now I have been watching the key Support of 19.42 on AMEX:SLV which corresponds to 21.00 on Silver Futures COMEX:SI1!:
This is a long term Weekly Timeframe support established by the COVID Low through February 2021 High. I made a video about this High then because around the financial media there was a meme encouraging retail traders to BUY SILVER to create a SHORT SQUEEZE and stick it to the hedge funds (see Video link below)! My video went back through news article history to show that this same meme had been used to dupe Precious Metal Bugs into false breakouts 4 out of the 5 times in the last two decades. Q1 2021 was a good time to piggy back on the "Short Squeeze" meme and resurface this old one in Silver. Well, now the record shows that 5 out of 6 times the "Short Squeeze Silver" meme has failed as Silver continues to trade lower 17 months after the fact. This is why it is important to be highly skeptical of mainstream financial media. Often times (in my conspiracy theory) they are put out by PR departments of the funds themselves to manipulate market sentiment in some firm(s) favor.
With this break of support Silver enters what I call "The Valley of Risk" where holders are faced with unknown losses as Supports become less clear. I am forecasting a fall into the mid-teens over the next few months. I have expressed this thesis in Put Spreads through the end of the year.
But I have been waiting for "The Silver Squeeze" for like 15 years now
WorldEconomics
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@peterbhc, - It'll come as soon as the DXY falls. That's what is suppressing metals.
WorldEconomics
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DXY is hurting silver. It'll break out as soon as the dollar weakens.
norok
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@WorldEconomics, The DXY's rise is due to the USD interest rates increasing while other Central Banks are remaining low to 0% and even quantitative easing beyond (Japan). So for this to happen banks around the world would need to start raising their rates to match. One would think, logically, that every Central Bank's money printer going brrrr would increase the relative value of precious metals... but the opposite is happening.
WorldEconomics
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@norok, - It's a case of, the USD is the best bet on the block for now. It will continue to do so, as I think Europe is in far worse shape economically and financially than the US. Logically, where do you put your trust? Yuan? Nah, they're starting to tumble. GDP falling worse than expected, plus they have the BIGGEST real estate bubble in the world... so, you cant go into Euro, Yuan, Ruble, Yen.. USD is your best bet, but even the mighty USD will fall
base4hit
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Eventually miners will not see it profitable to sustain operations in mining silver. Even if we hit 15 it will shoot back up like the past since it’s needed industrial use. Best part silver follows every other metal. If they become unprofitable no more susidiary silver