Week 33 of 52 | SMCI This Is the Level We Were Waiting For

Three weeks ago, we said $34–$38 was the level SMCI needed to reclaim before we could talk about a real change in structure.

Today, the stock is finally there.

And the timing is interesting.

SMCI is jumping after earnings, but this move is not only about the headline. Gross margins came in much stronger than expected, the company continues to see massive AI infrastructure demand, and management is guiding for another big year ahead.

That matters because demand was never really the biggest question around SMCI.

The bigger concern was whether the company could turn all that growth into better profitability.

For a while, the market wasn't convinced.

Now we're starting to see some improvement.

But the chart still has something to prove.

The $34–$38 area has rejected the stock before, and this is exactly where the previous recovery failed. A strong move above this zone — and more importantly, holding above it — would be the first real sign that the structure is changing.

If that happens, $42–$45 becomes the next area I'm watching.

Above that, the bigger $48–$52 resistance comes back into play.

On the other hand, if today's move gets rejected and SMCI falls back below $34, then this could simply become another strong earnings bounce inside a much larger range.

Levels I'm watching:

• $34–$38 — Breakout / confirmation zone
• $42–$45 — Next resistance
• $48–$52 — Major resistance
• $25–$26 — Major support

The interesting part is how this story has developed.

First, SMCI defended the $20–$25 area we were watching.

Now it has climbed all the way back to the exact resistance zone we identified in the previous update.

The support did its job.

Now it's the resistance that needs to prove itself.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always do your own research and manage risk according to your own strategy.