I'm not currently short the semis but upon doing some research I found a nice setup thesis. Similar weekly candles. I see the previous time SMH found it's low about 15.7% down from that weekly candle close after 29 days. If you use the same 15% calculation after 28/29 days, it brings you to the 23% fibonacci level at $120.
This is only a theory at this point and I'll continue to do some digging on it. But it looks ripe for a give back leading up to earnings or after earnings. I'm going to look for a put spread entry on Monday.
Good luck - and as always, don't trade based on my opinions or hypotheses.