4/30/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
SNAP
I'm in for a small 1% sub $8
- the metric that matters most to me is growing DAU and at this stage, there's visibility to 1 bn DAUs. very few co's nevermind of this size, have that scale
- we know openAI wants to build social. we know Google desperately needs social. etc. etc. and let's look a the metric that's perhaps the only one that puts this all into perspective: value per DAU. pre-mkt sub $8/shr implies nearly $16/DAU.
- yes. i get the massive SBC. it's what's alway made me hold my nose. yes i get the Evan votes my shares discount. but let's get real here, they're not *actually* burning cash. revenue growth is there b/c it follows DAUs. and mgns only continue to improve given the nature of this data-intensive product. oh - and in a world where AI eats everything digital, the only survivors (IMVHO) are ones with some form of human network effect. imagine trying to re-create this size/ scale product with this many users. possible. but for $16/DAU and technically profitable on a cash basis? good f'n luck.
- at this stage, i think we've entered extreme value. i'd love to own a lot more if/as we take out recent range lows in the low $7s, ideally mid $6s. but i'm not going to be overly greedy here and like the reflexivity option to the upside vs. extreme downside case all-in.
lmk if i've missed anything.
V
SNAPI'm in for a small 1% sub $8
- the metric that matters most to me is growing DAU and at this stage, there's visibility to 1 bn DAUs. very few co's nevermind of this size, have that scale
- we know openAI wants to build social. we know Google desperately needs social. etc. etc. and let's look a the metric that's perhaps the only one that puts this all into perspective: value per DAU. pre-mkt sub $8/shr implies nearly $16/DAU.
- yes. i get the massive SBC. it's what's alway made me hold my nose. yes i get the Evan votes my shares discount. but let's get real here, they're not *actually* burning cash. revenue growth is there b/c it follows DAUs. and mgns only continue to improve given the nature of this data-intensive product. oh - and in a world where AI eats everything digital, the only survivors (IMVHO) are ones with some form of human network effect. imagine trying to re-create this size/ scale product with this many users. possible. but for $16/DAU and technically profitable on a cash basis? good f'n luck.
- at this stage, i think we've entered extreme value. i'd love to own a lot more if/as we take out recent range lows in the low $7s, ideally mid $6s. but i'm not going to be overly greedy here and like the reflexivity option to the upside vs. extreme downside case all-in.
lmk if i've missed anything.
V
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.