forever_green

Still Waiting on Southern Company

Short
NYSE:SO   Southern Company (The)
*not investment advise. do your own research and invest at your own risk*

$SO is presently in a sell-off. I saw this coming (see my previous idea on SO) but the movement's strength and momentum has surprised me. From what I've read, this doesn't appear to be related to anything significant beyond general market selling and a pervasive over-valuation fear that grips every sector. There have been hiccups with the nuclear project related to Vogtle Unit 3 (surprise...not) but reports I've read have misconstrued the premise. Southern Nuclear self-reported many of the cable non-compliances to the Nuclear Commission. This is a non-issue.

Despite this, given the strength of the sell-off, I think we'll have a repeat of last year. Strong selling (probably profit-taking of those who bough early late 2020 - early 2021) going into winter with a noted downward trend until spring of 2022. Now would not be the time to buy up shares, in my opinion. If earnings are reported as strong this might alter my assertion, but the numbers would have to be impressive.

Southern's fair value still hovers around $60.00 so any purchase at or below that mark would be acceptable. With less growth and higher risk-free rates (not likely over long term) one could fairly price the stock as low as $53.00 - $48.00. I don't think SO will reach those levels but, if it did, that would be a very strong buy, in my opinion.

I'm looking for a downward move to around $58.00 - $60.00 at which point I'll start buying again.

I'm short.