Given the recent perfect performance for Sasol, given the news that lock-down regulations have been found unconstitutional, given the strengthening rand and steady oil prices, is this the perfect mix to take Sasol further? Only time will tell :)
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Hey everyone. Thanks for all the support. Super psyched that Sasol more than outperformed the prediction. A fair warning to all. This may be short-lived. Some out there may be pushing up the price due to FOMO. Do not be fooled. This type of massive rally in a day is not sustainable. I am expecting a rather large 30% or so drawback in the next week as people take profits from this week's massive moves.
Jeez mate, can you see into the future? Well done on your analysis! What do you reckon will happen next?
Marcelle_Nel
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@Pietie3000, Hey dude. I have to dive deeper into analysis again. That last chart took me a week to do based on 2 months of data. Sasol has now officially outperformed my analysis. This is always a bit scary for me. Personally I sold my shares today when it got around 135. Wishing I held on a few more hours since I would have made lots of more profit. However, this has the smell of FOMO buying. People watching the share price this week just saw it double in 5 days. All the way from 75 to 150. People seeing +10% on the price every day might let themselves be lulled into a buying frenzy for fear of missing out on the opportunity to make some quick cash. That is why I sold. My analysis showed a steady recovery over a 6 month period - which is more reasonable. This type of massive jump is not sustainable. So I decided to sell before what I believe to be a rapid 50% sell of in the coming week or so. I am looking to rebuy again with my profits in the next 2 weeks. But as always: I am not giving financial advice. This is just my feelings and analysis. Sometimes it's wrong, sometimes it's right. This was just happenly right this time. My final word of advice is this; be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Today was a massive show of greed. Too many people bought the price up way too fast in my opinion. This type of greed is usually followed by a big dip down to fair value again.
Pietie3000
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@Marcelle_Nel, Yes true I do understand where you are coming from. My view: I think postive news today from the OPEC+ meetings, will continue to fuel the fire for Sasol (taking that oil will continue to increase). This resulting in the bullish sentiment continueing a little bit longer, possibly to R170- R180 in the short term. I think unfavourable news from OPEC+ (oil price declining) will cause a substantial sell-off especially after Fridays rally, probably returning to R120 levels. On Friday, my return on investment with Sasol was 175%, from all the buying in the "fear" days (March), might consider selling some soon to bank profits.
Marcelle_Nel
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@Pietie3000, i think that is very sensible. I had less profits since I came in only in mid April. I banked 90% profit yesterday. If I were you I would also seriously consider selling. 175% gain is spectacular by any standard. Rather safe than sorry.
Pietie3000
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@Marcelle_Nel, thanks for this. Think I might sell soon too. Keep up the good work bud!
mokwaybr2
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Please teach me my brother you analysis are on point
Marcelle_Nel
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@mokwaybr2, @Pietie3000, Hey dude. Thanks for the support. Honestly anyone can do it if you just dedicate a little time into trend analysis. Believe me I literally joined tradingview a couple weeks ago and this was my VERY FIRST analysis I published. I watched tons of videos on youtube about trend analysis and this is how I learned. You will be able to do it too if you devote a couple of hours a week on research and playing around. Before I posted I made a few earlier renditions of analysis and watched how it played out. I then learned from that and refined my skills and published this one, as well as my transaction capital chart. Sasol has now officially broken out of the overall trend it was following the last 3 months so we need to wait and see what new trend arises. Or perhaps we will be thrown right back down to R 120 - R 130 next week and keep moving along the trend. This type of growth in a day is usually emotional buying, and just like that there is also emotional selling. Which I am expecting next week or two, thus bringing the price back to 3 month normal growth speeds. Time will tell if I am right on this, but at least that is what I expect to happen.
Tee_Optimist
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@Marcelle_Nel, Good to hear and See that self teaching does work out if you do apply the market rules... I'm anticipating the Bull rally to run until 15952 level on this stock this is just based on a feeling.
Could you recommend some videos on Youtube to watch on trend analysis?
Marcelle_Nel
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@Tee_Optimist, thanks for the comment. Surely. I have been watching David Moedel, Rayner Teo and The Secret Mindset YouTube channels for learning technical analysis. However, I have to also recommend Aussie Wealth Creation, Preston Pysh and Lunovest channels for fundamental analysis. I believe a proper balance between both are necessary.
jan14633
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Hey Marcelle. Awsome to see pro’s at work. I’m very new in share trading. What is the lowest you think Sasol will fall back to? Maybe under R100 or R90? Alot of people predict a second wave of Covid 19 which will bring the markets down again. Eager to hear your opinion? Just to confirm I’m not asking for financial advice, just your feelings and analysis.