In the 1930's RN Elliott devised his Wave Principle. After observing the markets for years and studying Dow Theory he made a bold call that the DJIA (at the time was $95) had bottomed, and he announced a new Major Cycle bull market was beginning. At the time the average had been in a decades long bear market. His pronouncement was ridiculed initially. However, price action is either the great redeemer or an open door to anonymity. This was the beginning of his work's recognition.
He theorized at the time there are 2 types of price actions...motive waves and corrective waves. Motive waves are price action that is with the trend. There are only 2 types of motive waves, Impulsive and Diagonals. If you will look at the above the chart this latest decline has been in a somewhat-clear diagonal down. Below is a micro count as best I can count this mess.
So it's hard to discern this move down is conclusively a diagonal but I want the people who follow me to know when you study patterns...not all real world patterns look like the ones that are nicely laid out in a power point presentation or when you Google...Elliott Wave Diagonal Pattern. In the real world you have to get into the fractals and decide on what you see in the details. A B wave CANNOT BE A DIAGONAL.
Therefore I believe this is a diagonal for a truncated 5 wave of c of C of SC2.
Now how do we confirm this? If this is an ending diagonal...when it completes price will head to where the diagonal started which should be the $18 area. Early this morning I purchased and filled on 1,000 Solana at $13.50. If this pattern completes and heads to $18 I'll set my stop at my buy in price or maybe a little lower. If we decline from that level correctively and take out the $18 level impulsively...then let's meet back here in 2 years to discuss SOLANA at $300?
Dca from here might be clever if you have the funds, but as BTC doesn't look like it bottoms at all yet, I'd be more than cautious about buying anything for the long term right now
maikisch
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@breubi if you feel caution is in order that that’s exactly how you should proceed
Alt-B
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It's hard to imagine that BTC won't revisit the 10-12K area soon. If/when that drop occurs. I would look at that a valid potential bottom and start averaging into the few coins that I plan to hold into 2024. SOL wouldn't be immune to that BTC event so could send it lower fast.
maikisch
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@Alt-B, If that's your plan than follow it...we have no confirmation yet we bottomed or we will revisit lows. What we have is what appears to be a full pattern...so that's how I'm going to proceed until price says otherwise.
Alt-B
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@Alt-B, I'm a little wary of the breach of long tern Monthly trend. TBH I see that is crypto investors addressing the reality that we have been in a super accommodative, low rate, money printed left and right to Trlllions inflating the dollar relentlessly since fall of 2008 QE and ZIR. I see it is as the market has been on crack for 15 years now and it's time to get off of it. So the environment was super stimulating for the idea of crypto. That's no longer the case and we don't have any data to compare this against. BTC 2009. QE and zirp almost the entire stretch.
maikisch
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@Alt-B, YOU HAVEN'T FOLLOWED ME FOR LONG...RIGHT? I don't pay attention to any of that stuff. If those components are part of your thesis then I suggest you trade accordingly. I just study the pattern...that's it. I don't follow news, hacks, FTX debacle, etc....None of that matters to me. I've been calling for a trip down here back when everyone loved crypto...these linear thinking components have no place in a nonlinear market.
Alt-B
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@maikisch, You are correct. I've only followed for maybe 2-3 months.... mostly just in reviewing the ideas for ES and SPX hoping to stoke the fire of bearish confirmation bias due to a large inverse position🤣....
Alt-B
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@maikisch, When I saw that some of those staking reward yields were topping 20%....I ran in the other direction. I actually pulled ALL of my crypto out in January except small amt of ADA in wallet. I was actually concerned about tether breaking the buck before LUNA even happened. Having watched money markets fail during the financial crisis when I was in asset management..... it just started to feel like that.. "I've seen this before" Then LUNA happened (and I 3x shorted using the ETF). But really it seemed like the whole ecosystem was becoming unstable and the risk became to great. So I fled to the safety of FDIC in late January this year.
Halby
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@maikisch I dont know Chriss, truncated wave 5, seriously. If you are truly right with this one and you pratically end the SOL bear market with something so rare I am gonna have to promote you from Boss somewhere between Tyrion Lannister "who drinks and know things" to demi-god!