Weekend Update: Will SOL take the quick or long route to bottom
Above is the daily chart for Solana.
The Ending diagonal structurally is intact until our wave 4 intercedes into the area of wave 2 which is around $38.92. Above $38.92 and I have to think we’re going to complete this consolidation as an expanded flat with c wave higher into the $50 area and that move may have already started. That type of price action would move our sub wave (iv) (displayed in purple on the chart) over and provide a huge alternation with its corresponding wave (ii).
The truth is I was not anticipating this consolidation to take this long to complete at new lows... and my ED count originally based on the micro pattern not exceeding $35.40 area...with that having happened it just invalidates this was ending sooner than later...and could be a sign that SOL does not intend on concluding right now and the purple expanded flat will be the path. At this juncture I prefer to focus on the pattern in front of me, as forecasting Solana has been difficult since spring. I have not traded Solana because the pattern is messy and I have had difficulty with arriving at a trade thesis. The reason we need to be on guard for the purple expanded flat is we still only have 3 waves down so far in the $26.70-90 region that did not provide us with a new low which would’ve been a breach of $25.74.
On the intraday side (below) this is what the Black Ending Diagonal Count is looking like AS OF NOW. If this count is correct...we need to start heading down soon. This move down would be the last and it would conclude with a breach of the prior lows. TO NOT FOLLOW THAT PATH WILL ONLY LEAVE THE EXPANDED FLAT. Price must head to new lows in a 3 wave overlapping pattern.
Keep in mind we’re dealing with a super cycle wave 2. This is the beginning of Solana’s existence. For those who would push back on me counting this as a Supercycle event...I would simply point you to its complete 5 wave pattern prior and sheer market-cap expansion this crypto currency experienced. This is the beginning of a long-term trend vs. A flash in the pan scenario. We do not get our first major clue we’ve bottomed until price gets above $144...and even that is not confirmation. However, some would disagree. But confirmation only comes in the form of a breach of the all-time high. Additionally, the MACD indicator does not appear to be jeopardy of losing the massive amount of positive divergence that is clearly visible on the daily chart. So, as we have done all Summer and now into fall, we wait for clues as to price’s intentions as we track where and how price intends to bottom.
As a trader, I have not done anything with Solana for months as this choppy price can be treacherous to trade. I tend to avoid these patterns. I own a large position of Solana as I have run ASIC’s on Prohasing for almost a year now. These earnings were quickly staked in the beginning but then I changed to waiting for 100 SOL before staking. To unstake my entire position I would assume would take weeks as I would have to do each epoch...and I get stressed just thinking about that. My plan has been to acquire several more thousand SOL once a breach of the low’s took place....so I have had to remain patient. For me Solana is a long-term acquisition, and $25 vs $50 in the grand scheme of things is NOT the move I being patient for and wish to capture.
Best to all,
Chris
The Ending diagonal structurally is intact until our wave 4 intercedes into the area of wave 2 which is around $38.92. Above $38.92 and I have to think we’re going to complete this consolidation as an expanded flat with c wave higher into the $50 area and that move may have already started. That type of price action would move our sub wave (iv) (displayed in purple on the chart) over and provide a huge alternation with its corresponding wave (ii).
The truth is I was not anticipating this consolidation to take this long to complete at new lows... and my ED count originally based on the micro pattern not exceeding $35.40 area...with that having happened it just invalidates this was ending sooner than later...and could be a sign that SOL does not intend on concluding right now and the purple expanded flat will be the path. At this juncture I prefer to focus on the pattern in front of me, as forecasting Solana has been difficult since spring. I have not traded Solana because the pattern is messy and I have had difficulty with arriving at a trade thesis. The reason we need to be on guard for the purple expanded flat is we still only have 3 waves down so far in the $26.70-90 region that did not provide us with a new low which would’ve been a breach of $25.74.
On the intraday side (below) this is what the Black Ending Diagonal Count is looking like AS OF NOW. If this count is correct...we need to start heading down soon. This move down would be the last and it would conclude with a breach of the prior lows. TO NOT FOLLOW THAT PATH WILL ONLY LEAVE THE EXPANDED FLAT. Price must head to new lows in a 3 wave overlapping pattern.
Keep in mind we’re dealing with a super cycle wave 2. This is the beginning of Solana’s existence. For those who would push back on me counting this as a Supercycle event...I would simply point you to its complete 5 wave pattern prior and sheer market-cap expansion this crypto currency experienced. This is the beginning of a long-term trend vs. A flash in the pan scenario. We do not get our first major clue we’ve bottomed until price gets above $144...and even that is not confirmation. However, some would disagree. But confirmation only comes in the form of a breach of the all-time high. Additionally, the MACD indicator does not appear to be jeopardy of losing the massive amount of positive divergence that is clearly visible on the daily chart. So, as we have done all Summer and now into fall, we wait for clues as to price’s intentions as we track where and how price intends to bottom.
As a trader, I have not done anything with Solana for months as this choppy price can be treacherous to trade. I tend to avoid these patterns. I own a large position of Solana as I have run ASIC’s on Prohasing for almost a year now. These earnings were quickly staked in the beginning but then I changed to waiting for 100 SOL before staking. To unstake my entire position I would assume would take weeks as I would have to do each epoch...and I get stressed just thinking about that. My plan has been to acquire several more thousand SOL once a breach of the low’s took place....so I have had to remain patient. For me Solana is a long-term acquisition, and $25 vs $50 in the grand scheme of things is NOT the move I being patient for and wish to capture.
Best to all,
Chris
Comment:
Solana looks poised to take the longer route with its impulsive move higher but we wait for final invalidation
Go to ewtdaily.com for DETAILED DAILY UPDATES on this ticker, and get a 7-day FREE trial on updates on 27 unique tickers.