Almost 4 months ago (March 09, see chart below), we issued a mapping on how the 2nd half of Solana 's (SOLUSD) Bear Cycle will play out:
Looking back at it today, it couldn't have evolved better as the price has breached below the 0.618 Fibonacci level and being within the red Box, is preparing for the final sell-off that will price the Bear Cycle's bottom.
With some slight modifications to fit the pattern more accurately, we can see that the trend remains heavily bearish, below the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), with the 1W RSI replicating still the 2022 pattern.
The February - April 2026 consolidation is over and right now we are seeing the re-accumulation of selling that will push the 1W RSI to oversold territory again before its bottoms again.
We have prolonged Stage 2 (red Rectangle) of the Bear Cycle in order to fit the Time duration of 2022 but our main Target remains $36.000. However, this slight modification adds another one at $30.000 in case the Cycle is extended to early November, which represents a -70% decline from the Stage 2 High, aligned with the symmetry of the 2022 Bear Cycle Legs.
As mentioned before, Cycles are never completely identical but they are symmetrical due to similar market behavioral patterns and technically until the 1D MA200 breaks again, the Bear Cycle should continue (like it did in 2022, which ended once it broke).
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Looking back at it today, it couldn't have evolved better as the price has breached below the 0.618 Fibonacci level and being within the red Box, is preparing for the final sell-off that will price the Bear Cycle's bottom.
With some slight modifications to fit the pattern more accurately, we can see that the trend remains heavily bearish, below the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), with the 1W RSI replicating still the 2022 pattern.
The February - April 2026 consolidation is over and right now we are seeing the re-accumulation of selling that will push the 1W RSI to oversold territory again before its bottoms again.
We have prolonged Stage 2 (red Rectangle) of the Bear Cycle in order to fit the Time duration of 2022 but our main Target remains $36.000. However, this slight modification adds another one at $30.000 in case the Cycle is extended to early November, which represents a -70% decline from the Stage 2 High, aligned with the symmetry of the 2022 Bear Cycle Legs.
As mentioned before, Cycles are never completely identical but they are symmetrical due to similar market behavioral patterns and technically until the 1D MA200 breaks again, the Bear Cycle should continue (like it did in 2022, which ended once it broke).
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** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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I trade Crypto, Forex, Indices & Commodities on PrimeXBT — all from one account with TradingView charts 👉 tradingshot.short.gy/PrimeXBT
I also use TradeNation for fixed spreads & zero commission 👉 tradingshot.short.gy/Tradenation
I also use TradeNation for fixed spreads & zero commission 👉 tradingshot.short.gy/Tradenation
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
I trade Crypto, Forex, Indices & Commodities on PrimeXBT — all from one account with TradingView charts 👉 tradingshot.short.gy/PrimeXBT
I also use TradeNation for fixed spreads & zero commission 👉 tradingshot.short.gy/Tradenation
I also use TradeNation for fixed spreads & zero commission 👉 tradingshot.short.gy/Tradenation
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.