# NFP Explodes! 172K Crushes Expectations, Rate Cut Dreams Shatt

Folks, the non-farm payroll data is out.

If you were still dreaming that the Fed would cut rates anytime soon, wake up — not to an alarm clock, but to a bucket of ice water labeled **172,000**.

I took one look at the latest numbers, and all I can say is:

This Friday, someone is definitely losing sleep.

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## 1. NFP Data: So Much for a "Moderate Cooling"

Let's start with the numbers.

U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by **172,000** in May. And what was the market expecting?

**88,000**.

Nearly double.

Unemployment rate held at 4.3%, in line with expectations, steady for the second straight month.

What's the subtext here?

> **The U.S. economy isn't cooling — it's running hot.**

Just yesterday, analysts were saying "bad news is good news" — the weaker the NFP, the stronger the rate-cut expectations, and the more stocks would rally.

Then today's data dropped, and that narrative got slapped right in the face.

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## 2. Market Reaction: Nasdaq Futures Take a Knee First

Right after the data, stock futures diverged instantly:

- **Dow Futures**: +0.06% (barely hanging on)
- **S&P 500 Futures**: -0.61%
- **Nasdaq 100 Futures**: **-1.32%**

Why are tech stocks getting hit the hardest?

Because rate-cut hopes are gone. And now, there's even talk of **rate hikes**.

Traders have pushed the first expected rate cut all the way back to **January next year** — just yesterday, they were optimistic about a March cut.

Even worse, interest rate futures now show investors see a **51.3% probability** of a rate hike within the year.

Rate hike vs. rate cut?

One is heaven, the other is hell.

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## 3. Chip Stocks: Broadcom Aftershocks + NFP Follow-Up = Pain on Pain

Pre-market, chip stocks were already in free fall:

- **ARM**: down over 5%
- **Micron**: down 4%
- **Intel, ASML, AMD, TSMC**: down 2-3% each

The Broadcom situation wasn't over yet, and now NFP came in to twist the knife.

Broadcom tanked over 12% in one day after its AI chip revenue outlook missed expectations. Micron followed with a 7%+ drop.

Now with NFP blowing past estimates, rate expectations have completely reversed —

**High-valuation tech stocks are the first to get thrown overboard.**

JPMorgan's take now sounds painfully accurate:

> "No matter whether May's NFP is strong or weak, it's bad news for U.S. stocks."

Weak numbers? Fear of recession. Strong numbers? Fear of rate hikes.

It's not "no good options" — it's "every option is wrong."

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## 4. KORU: Lost Half Its Value in Two Days, Korean Investors Are Crying Tears

Now look at KORU.

Down 23% yesterday. Down again today.

South Korea's KOSPI index closed **down 5.54%** today at 8,160.59.

It triggered a circuit breaker during the session — the Korea Exchange halted program trading for five minutes.

Samsung Electronics: -6.4%

SK Hynix: -9.92%

Foreign investors have now sold Korean stocks for 20 consecutive trading days.

What kind of market is this?

**Anyone who tried to catch the knife is now buried two layers deep.**

KORU fell from over 1,000 to around 800 in just two days — practically cut in half.

Who's buying? Only the brave and the martyrs.

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## 5. Dow: The Only One Still Smiling

The only one still able to crack a smile is the Dow.

Yesterday, the Dow surged 1.73% to a record high.

Today, after the NFP data, Dow futures are still in the green.

Why?

Because money is **fleeing tech and flowing into traditional blue chips**.

Healthcare and financials led gains yesterday, up 3.16% and 2.68% respectively.

KB Financial: +4.51%

Shinhan Financial: +7.39%

What's this called?

**A style shift.**

When rate-hike expectations heat up, financials are one of the few sectors that actually benefit.

Meanwhile, those still soaking in the AI bubble today — well, they might break out in a rash.

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## 6. Gold, Oil, Dollar: Who's the Winner?

After the NFP data, other assets are repricing as well:

- **Gold**: up 0.88% last night, hovering around $4,475. Recession fears haven't materialized, but safe-haven demand remains.
- **Oil**: down over 3%, due to news of a conditional ceasefire agreement — geopolitical risk is cooling.
- **Dollar Index**: holding weak, but a strong NFP could trigger a dollar rebound.

Right now, the biggest losers are **tech stock bulls**, the calmest are **financial stock holders**, and the most bewildered are **those still lying in KORU**.

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## Da Wen's Take

Folks, today's NFP data sends a very clear signal:

> **"Rate cuts? Not happening."**

The first Fed policy meeting under new Chair Warsh (June 16-17) is just around the corner.

The big questions now are:

- If NFP is this strong, will the Fed actually **hike rates**?
- If they hike, how much further will tech stocks fall?
- If tech crashes, how long can the Dow hold up?

My advice is simple:

**Don't fight the Fed, and don't fight the trend.**

When you're confused, just **hold cash and watch the show**.

After all —

In this market, surviving matters more than winning.

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*PS: Someone asked again today whether they should bottom-fish KORU. I'll just say: you're not catching a bottom — you're catching a suspense thriller.*