Gap-Up Held, Then Crashed, Then Bounced — Now What?

QQQ SPY
**June 9 | ~14:00 ET**

The market played heart attack today.

**Morning:** Gap-up held. Looked like relief.

**Noon:** Crashed. SPY -1.95%, QQQ -3.68%, VIX spiked 16%. Leverage unwind in SOXL, KORU. Looked like capitulation.

**14:00:** Bounced back. VIX retreated. Half the losses recovered.

**What happened?**

Old news fermented:
- Broadcom's "good but not great" earnings triggered AI supply chain rethink
- Philly SOX index crashed 10% Friday after +94% in 45 days — leverage unwind
- NFP at 172k vs 85k expected killed rate-cut hopes
- Fed officials hawkish, Trump pressuring, CPI tomorrow

**The quant angle:**

Models stopped out on the morning drop. Back to 0% exposure. Now watching.

Who's buying the bounce? Institutions bottom-fishing, short covering, retail guessing. Without quant anchor, market is naked swimming.

**Tuesday close:** Likely flat to slightly down. Random walk without quant participation.

**Real test:** Wednesday CPI.

Full playbook — stop logic, scenario weights, what models wait for?

Wall Street Tea House
☕️

*Not investment advice. Full write-up elsewhere.*