its been a hell of a couple weeks for the semiconductor stocks. weve blown through resistance with a vengence, and pretty much havent stopped for anything. the problem is the rest of the stock market hasnt responded with the same bullishness. just like i was in soxl coming off the top of the channel, im now in soxs coming off the bottom of the channel.
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this is just outlining where that former wave is and what similarities im expecting sorry for the crude method
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take the regression use this trend line and trailing stop strategy right now im stopping loss at 24.49
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so whats it gonna take to change my mind and believe in this breakout fundamentally? well i need to see the weekly rhs complete and follow through, but if you ask me about the base reasoning in specific equity im looking at replacement cost, and its relationship as a quotient to profit over assets. i want to know if this reinvestment in the space is paying off, or if it was too early. if we get equillibrium were up in 2024, and if we get anything else were down.
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so im returning long if we close this 5 mins bullish or im staying out if we flip/signal indecision (nonevent maybe)
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nvda is up but the market and smh are down... just saying.
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im tired. im not dealing with this spread. im not enjoying the aftereffects of my trades. im not interested in picking a direction with this. im out completely until we calm down and pick a direction daily.
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so if you look at diluted outstanding (not available on tv) youll find the spike actually happened during the last pop of the bounce before the drop that led us here (around vertical line) now we have another inflection point with the lens of that judgement through finding a delta cypher thats actually diverging bullishly again im prepared for a huge drop in soxs if this underlying theme of rate of change drop coinciding with spot breakout, and that means soxl could do $44, and the interesting thing is we can revisit hourly oversold conditions or former resistance levels and still be quite bullish
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i think the best plan right now is follow the money long semis
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aiming 15 min bull to close
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targeting 15.87
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gonna wait for this to sort itself out for now im still tentatively long semis
Imo beras will have upper hand while bullas will need to defend key areas in the 12-10 dollar range (for soxl) if that holds, maybe bullas can push price 22+.
cerealpatterns
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@ClumsyTheClown, lets talk about a range that would make sense for this to occur. if bears hold this midline and push lower id look for semiconductors to remain a lead bull. if we break bullishly to the upside we could retest the top of this range. if we stay beneath it we could retest the lower end.
cerealpatterns
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@ClumsyTheClown, this is the range im concerned with spx futures at the moment. im long on bull breaks, bounces, short on bear breaks, continuation.
elenaec
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i think the best plan right now is follow the money long semis , is it LONG or SHORT from here ????
cerealpatterns
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@elenaec, i realize its confusing when talking about the derivative of a derivate of a derivative. long means long in the context of the last update being sox long and index long.
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Thank you kindly for sharing.
cerealpatterns
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so lets say were still long semis i would only be looking to close this mornings gap up (assuming we open up) and lets say we are still down near the base of this new all time low were exploring im only considering this gets really slammed if we start seeing a real breakout in the broader market confirm. probably lower prices soxs but im long since last night and looking at selling to get back in somewhere. im going to continue that until i start a run up, or that stops working where ill switch to soxl.
elenaec
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is this going back down to $10 anytime soon ??? ty
cerealpatterns
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@elenaec, honestly heres what i think about $10. we can spend weeks at all time lows, and if the market doesnt break out semis still lead the way down.