Ownership: I own some far-out options for (+3 15JAN2021 20/40C)
Details: REALLY slowed down on us. News doesn't seem to be moving it much. ATR has fallen all the way to 1.02. I still feel good buying $20 leap Calls, but nothing short term.
Hey Eagle, Great job for the analysis. That is forming an wedge and looks like SPCE is a new supply zone. We can easy touch the upper area to 18.42. Long positions are good if the market allows SPCE to higher. If we break under this wedge of your trendline we can retest the yellow demand zone 15.50-16.11. Look for the break above 17.60 and we can see price action favor the long side of SPCE. The 20ema and 50 ema are still under the 4hr. So what we want to look for is when the 20 and 50ema are crossing. That's a 4hr trend mini reversal that will definitely help us. We need one more DOA_SNIPER GREEN ARROW TO help us on the 1hr chart to help us with our thesis as an extra confirmation to go long! Thank you for great analysis. You are killing it!
Arbitus
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I should clarify. I never actually talked about your analysis. I think I'm just seeing a lot of people that are getting upset that this isn't doing what they want it to and hoping I can help ease their minds by showing that this all pretty much makes sense. Good analysis though! Solid work.
Uncle_Eagle
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@mcassone, Thank you :). I also agree with you, and while I began as a "Robinhood" trader, I've seriously dug into trading as a real craft. This is why I mentioned SPCE only in terms of LEAPs for options traders. I appreciate your insight!
Arbitus
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@Uncle_Eagle, Yeah! Actually the new culture of Robinhood traders who started during the pandemic are really powerful. You are a damn force that not enough people understand. I am trying to study it actually. It is incredibly valuable data. You're changing the market. I think you should be :). My goal recently has been to make that easier for people. Create a system that helps everyday people participate in this, especially while their economic boundaries tighten and make less and less sense.
Yeah it did slow down, but honestly I feel like a lot of people have had hyped expectations that can be dangerous. I have the long view with this. Lots of people trade this one with the expectation that they will become suddenly rich, but if this stock blew up before late October or early November, it would be an anomaly to me, not evidence of what it will do when it really matters. The reason stock prices even change seems to be often misunderstood by the culture of traders that are in SPCE. It's made me start a free education service recently. I am heavily invested in this and I'm not expecting anything to happen until a few points in the timeline where I might choose to sell small parts of the position with the intention of simply re-investing. Everything that has happened up until now has been totally normal as far as my version of analysis. Technical analysis from now until early next year only serves to help people with an entry point for what this will really be doing later. If it hits 20 on Monday, I probably won't care. If it hits 14 (it probably won't), I'll just buy more. This is something you could choose to trade short term, but you will never have a reason to really know what it will do next until there is a reason to know. Everyone has a piece of the answer. If some want to trade this short term, it does still have potential. I do this professionally. It's a huge opportunity long term and sometimes short term if you grab it below 17 (It's also an opportunity I broke my own rules for when I decided it was an opportunity. It's just too good to pass up. Not investing in this is insane as far as I'm concerned. Took me awhile to get past my prejudice of hyped stocks to reach that).