After a successful test flight, Virgin Galactic shares went up. But, if you look at these stocks through the Elliott Wave Principle, this growth was likely.
From February 2020 to May 2021, wave (2) of unfolded in the form of a running flat. Wave (2) corrected wave (1) at 0.786 Fibonacci. After completing the correction, the price began to rise from $14.27 to $35.04. It is possible that the wave 1 of (3) of has not yet been completed, which means that it is quite likely that the local maximum of $35.04 will be updated.
In the future, I expect to see a correction in SPCE shares, followed by a strong growth. I can calculate the possible end of the wave (3):
wave (3) = 1.618 wave (1) at $71.85 wave (3) = 2.618 wave (1) at $107.44 wave (3) = 4.236 wave (1) at $165.03
I think that SPCE shares have a high potential for growth.
Comment
⋅
A month has passed since the publication of the forecast and it's time to describe the current situation. Having reached the high at 57.51$, the price began to fall. I consider this fall as the beginning of the development of the corrective wave [a] of 2. Wave 2 usually takes the form of a zigzag.
The new low off the recent high proves it's not a triangle but now appears to be a incomplete double ZigZag correction if bullish at all.
pechi123
⋅
If d isn't done at today's high 49.39 then that was only wave (a) of d, wave (c) would have equality (c=a) at 50.77, and (c) = 1.618 x (a) @ 54.05. Each subdivision of a triangle has 3 waves, or 15 waves all together accounting for a long sideways move and time.
pechi123
⋅
Given the two up gaps and one down gap from the recent high it is possible that a bullish contracting triangle is forming as a 4th wave, if that is the case then a= 43.08, b= 54.40, c= 44.04 with wave d up in progress. Wave d likely to come in vicinity of b but lower, then wave e down above 44.04 then a thrust up to new all-time highs. Wave d can slightly come over the top of b, but that'll make it a barrier triangle. Key to this count is the wave a low 43.08, if violated then potentially it can be an A-B-C correction then C=A @ 39.97, C=1.618 x A @ 31.05 (near a prior 4th). Coming above the recovery high 57.51 or potential B top without the triangle subdivisions would be immediately bullish. If bearish a close under 28.12, a prior 4th wave, would likely expose 2 gaps underneath to be filled. It is possible considering how far and fast it came off the 14.27 low to 57.51 high in less than 6 weeks. At this time without further development, and the two large gap ups, I favor the triangle count.
Dzinsai
⋅
@pechi123, Yes, you can also consider a triangle. Why not? In your and my wave count, we expect three waves of decline, which will be a trading setup for making a trading decision.
scottbrad
⋅
The gap 17-24 may has me concerned. Thoughts on whether it gets filled?
Dzinsai
⋅
@scottbrad, It is possible that this gap will serve as a support level for the development of wave 2.
y01004750
⋅
The potential is there but how about that huge H&S? (¬‿¬)
Dzinsai
⋅
@y01004750, Time will tell which is more likely :)