$SPCE Love Space Travel, But You May Want To Wait Before Buying
Technical Analysis
Currently, $SPCE is respecting a Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern, where neither the buyers nor the sellers are pushing the price far enough to form a clear trend. As of 4/10/2020, the price closed at $20.77, at the slope of lower highs. Even though I believe that $SPCE has explosive long-term growth potential, assuming that the company is able to reach the stage where they are able to successfully follow their timeline and fly Sir Richard Branson to space, based on the technical factors and risk-reward ratio, I strongly advise against entries at the current price point until further confirmation signals.
The reason that $SPCE was able to soar to the $20 mark in such a short period of time from the recent $16 range is due to a gap up driven by BofA Securities upgrading $SPCE to "buy" with a price target of $35.00. However, as you can see from my chart, historically, gaps are almost always filled - rather quickly in fact. There are 2 exceptions where gaps are not filled yet, namely the 3/8/2020 gap down from $24.02 to $21.75 and the 25/9/2020 gap up from $16.43 to $18.29. With the bearish market outlook currently due to POTUS contracting COVID-19 acting as a catalyst and the Symmetrical Triangle acting as a resistance to push the price down, the likelihood that we will revisit $16.43 to close the gap is very plausible. Furthermore, fundamentally, there has been no change to the company yet - at least until 22/10/2020. Thus, with the price being purely driven by BofA, the $20.00 price may not be sustainable in the short-term.
Entries, Price Targets, Stop Losses
The best price for entry would either be at the $16.43 range or if the price breaks above the Symmetrical Triangle, retrace back to the slope of lower lows or the $21.00 to $21.58 Support and Resistance Zone, and holds above it.
For my price target prior to 22/10/2020, depending on whether you are bullish or bearish on $SPCE short-term, it will either be $24.02 or $16.43. Since I am bearish short-term but bullish long-term, I am leaning more towards $16.43 prior to 22/10/2020. As for my price target beyond 22/10/2020, it will depend on whether the suborbital test flight is successful. I will do an update of this post in the future once $SPCE announces the result.
As for my stop-losses, bulls stop-loss will be at $16.43 while bears stop-loss will be at $24.02. As you can see, if you were to enter into a new position at the current price-point, bulls have an upside gain of $3.25 per share with a downside risk of $4.34 while it is vice-versa for the bears. Thus, the risk-reward is really not that worth it. Even if you are a long-term investor, $SPCE is still at a highly speculative stage. The best-case scenario in the event of a test-flight delay or crash is a plunge towards $16.43. Although if everything goes as planned, $20.77 would look like a steal for you in the future. But if you have the conviction, go for it. It is a really high risk, high reward play for investors, and it will take conviction to stay in the trade.
Disclaimer
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. I am an amateur investor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, or stock picks, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment, or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this site, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
If this post has helped you out in making your investment/trading decision, give it a huge thumbs up, and follow for more updates regarding this ticker symbol!
Currently, $SPCE is respecting a Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern, where neither the buyers nor the sellers are pushing the price far enough to form a clear trend. As of 4/10/2020, the price closed at $20.77, at the slope of lower highs. Even though I believe that $SPCE has explosive long-term growth potential, assuming that the company is able to reach the stage where they are able to successfully follow their timeline and fly Sir Richard Branson to space, based on the technical factors and risk-reward ratio, I strongly advise against entries at the current price point until further confirmation signals.
The reason that $SPCE was able to soar to the $20 mark in such a short period of time from the recent $16 range is due to a gap up driven by BofA Securities upgrading $SPCE to "buy" with a price target of $35.00. However, as you can see from my chart, historically, gaps are almost always filled - rather quickly in fact. There are 2 exceptions where gaps are not filled yet, namely the 3/8/2020 gap down from $24.02 to $21.75 and the 25/9/2020 gap up from $16.43 to $18.29. With the bearish market outlook currently due to POTUS contracting COVID-19 acting as a catalyst and the Symmetrical Triangle acting as a resistance to push the price down, the likelihood that we will revisit $16.43 to close the gap is very plausible. Furthermore, fundamentally, there has been no change to the company yet - at least until 22/10/2020. Thus, with the price being purely driven by BofA, the $20.00 price may not be sustainable in the short-term.
Entries, Price Targets, Stop Losses
The best price for entry would either be at the $16.43 range or if the price breaks above the Symmetrical Triangle, retrace back to the slope of lower lows or the $21.00 to $21.58 Support and Resistance Zone, and holds above it.
For my price target prior to 22/10/2020, depending on whether you are bullish or bearish on $SPCE short-term, it will either be $24.02 or $16.43. Since I am bearish short-term but bullish long-term, I am leaning more towards $16.43 prior to 22/10/2020. As for my price target beyond 22/10/2020, it will depend on whether the suborbital test flight is successful. I will do an update of this post in the future once $SPCE announces the result.
As for my stop-losses, bulls stop-loss will be at $16.43 while bears stop-loss will be at $24.02. As you can see, if you were to enter into a new position at the current price-point, bulls have an upside gain of $3.25 per share with a downside risk of $4.34 while it is vice-versa for the bears. Thus, the risk-reward is really not that worth it. Even if you are a long-term investor, $SPCE is still at a highly speculative stage. The best-case scenario in the event of a test-flight delay or crash is a plunge towards $16.43. Although if everything goes as planned, $20.77 would look like a steal for you in the future. But if you have the conviction, go for it. It is a really high risk, high reward play for investors, and it will take conviction to stay in the trade.
Disclaimer
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. I am an amateur investor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, or stock picks, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment, or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this site, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
If this post has helped you out in making your investment/trading decision, give it a huge thumbs up, and follow for more updates regarding this ticker symbol!
