Week 24 of 52 SPCX The Most Important IPO of Our Generation?

Jun 12

SPCX is finally public, and the market is treating it exactly how you would expect: massive attention, huge volume, and immediate FOMO.

SpaceX is not just another IPO.

This is the company that turned reusable rockets from a crazy idea into one of the biggest technological advantages in the world. It built Starlink into the largest satellite internet network on the planet. It changed the economics of space launches. And now, it is finally trading in the public market.

That is why the hype is real.

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share, raising a record $75 billion and reaching a valuation around $1.75 trillion. That makes this the largest IPO in history and immediately places SpaceX in the conversation with the biggest companies in the world.

The numbers are incredible.

In 2025, SpaceX reported approximately $18.67 billion in revenue, up 33% year over year. Starlink represented about 60% of total sales, supported by roughly 10.3 million users and around 9,600 satellites. That is not just a rocket company anymore. That is a launch business, a satellite internet business, a defense/space infrastructure business, and possibly one of the most ambitious AI/space platforms ever attempted.

But here is the part investors need to respect:

A historic company can still create a dangerous entry.

After pricing near $135, the stock quickly moved into the $150–$170 opening range. That first IPO move can be driven by scarcity, media attention, retail demand, institutional positioning, and the Elon Musk premium. That is where FOMO becomes powerful — and where bad entries are often created.

The first 1–2 months after a major IPO are usually not about “fair value.” They are about price discovery.

Early buyers take profits. Traders sell the first pop. Institutions reassess valuation. Underwriters may use the greenshoe option to stabilize trading. And retail investors who chased the excitement often get tested once the headline momentum cools down. SpaceX’s IPO also includes a greenshoe option that could allow underwriters to buy up to 15% additional shares at the IPO price, which is commonly used to help manage early trading volatility.

That is why my focus is not only on how incredible SpaceX is.

My focus is on where the market eventually builds a base.

SpaceX may become one of the most important public companies of the next decade. But even generational companies can go through a post-IPO cooling-off period before offering a cleaner long-term setup.

For me, the lesson is simple:

Do not confuse an incredible story with an automatic entry.
Do not chase maximum excitement.
Wait for structure.
Wait for price discovery.
Let the market show where real long-term demand is.

SpaceX may be historic.

But the smartest money usually does not buy the loudest moment.

Disclaimer: This idea is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.

Jul 16

Trade active

One month ago, on the day SpaceX began trading publicly, I wrote:

“Do not confuse an incredible story with an automatic entry.”

That warning aged well.

SPCX opened near $150, exploded to an intraday high of $225.64 and briefly reached a valuation above $2.6 trillion.

Then price discovery started working in the opposite direction.

The stock has now fallen approximately 40% from its peak and traded below its $135 IPO price for the first time before recovering slightly to close at $135.27.

The company did not become 40% worse in one month.

The market simply realized that an exceptional company can still become an extremely expensive stock when excitement, scarcity and FOMO control the price.

The original thesis was not that SpaceX was a bad company.

The thesis was that investors should wait for structure instead of chasing the loudest moment.

That structure is finally beginning to appear.

What Changed?

SpaceX completed its IPO after the underwriters exercised their full overallotment option, ultimately raising approximately $85.7 billion in gross proceeds.

The stock was also added to the Nasdaq-100, creating additional institutional and passive demand.

However, even Nasdaq-100 inclusion failed to reverse the decline. SPCX has fallen approximately 13% since joining the index.

That tells us something important:

Forced institutional buying can support liquidity, but it cannot permanently defend an overextended valuation.

Investors are also reassessing the company’s capital requirements. SpaceX recently raised approximately $25 billion through the bond market to fund AI and technology infrastructure, while the company reported a $4.9 billion loss last year.

At approximately $135, SpaceX is no longer trading at the euphoric valuation seen near $225.

But a 40% decline does not automatically make the stock cheap.

The market capitalization remains close to $1.8 trillion, meaning that investors are still pricing in years of exceptional execution across Starlink, launch services, Starship, defense contracts and future AI infrastructure.

The Most Important Level

The $132–135 area is now the most important zone on the chart.

It combines:

• The $135 IPO price
• The current all-time low near $132
• A major psychological level
• The first real test of institutional demand

A temporary move below the IPO price is not enough to confirm a major breakdown.

What matters is whether buyers can defend this area and whether SPCX can reclaim the levels it recently lost.

Bullish Scenario

The first bullish signal would be a successful defense of $132–135 followed by a recovery above $150.

The $150 level matters because it was approximately where public trading began. Reclaiming it would suggest that the move below the opening price was a failed breakdown rather than the beginning of another major leg lower.

Above $150, the next important area is $160–170.

Acceptance above that zone would begin repairing the short-term structure and could open the door toward $175–185.

A stronger trend reversal would require SPCX to recover above $200.

Bearish Scenario

A daily close below $132 followed by a failed attempt to reclaim $135 would be a much more serious bearish signal.

Below the IPO zone, SPCX has no established historical support.

The stock would enter a new phase of price discovery, where psychological levels become more important than traditional technical support.

The first potential area to monitor would be $120–125.

If that zone fails to attract meaningful demand, a deeper valuation reset toward $100–110 could become possible.

Those lower levels are not confirmed support yet. They are potential reaction zones that would need to be validated by price action and volume.

Upcoming Catalysts

The company’s first post-IPO financial results are expected during the first week of August.

The market will be looking for evidence that revenue growth, Starlink expansion and future operating leverage can begin supporting the valuation.

Investors must also consider the first phase of the IPO lock-up expiration, which could allow eligible employees and early shareholders to sell part of their holdings after the earnings release.

That does not guarantee additional selling.

But it increases the potential supply of shares at a time when the technical structure is already weak.

The upcoming 13th Starship test flight is another major catalyst.

Starship remains central to the long-term thesis because its success could reduce launch costs, accelerate Starlink deployment and support SpaceX’s lunar, defense and orbital-infrastructure ambitions.

A successful flight could improve sentiment quickly.

A major failure could create additional pressure.

Bottom Line

My original view has not changed:

SpaceX may still become one of the most important public companies of the next decade.

But a generational company does not guarantee a good entry at every price.

Investors who bought near $225 are currently experiencing the difference between owning an exceptional business and paying an exceptional valuation.

At this point, I would not automatically buy simply because SPCX has fallen 40%.

I would watch how the stock behaves around $132–135.

If buyers defend the IPO price and recover $150, a more constructive structure could begin forming.

If $132 breaks and becomes resistance, the valuation reset may not be finished.

The story remains extraordinary.

Now the price must prove that real long-term demand is finally arriving.

Key Levels

Current decision zone: $132–135
First bullish reclaim: $150
Major recovery zone: $160–170
Secondary resistance: $175–185
Major overhead supply: $200–210
All-time high: $225–226

Potential downside zones: $120–125 and $100–110

Disclaimer: This publication is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own research and manage your risk.